2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Unlucky Barrels
Batters who crushed the ball (105+ mph exit velo) without getting paid off — a rolling 7-day view ending on the selected date.
25 batters · 7 days ending 2026-06-19
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-06-19T14:00:29-04:00
Barrel-Rich, HR-Poor · 7 days ending 2026-06-19
25 batters
Batter Hard-Hit Games HRs Gap Avg Max EV Peak EV Appearances
Junior Caminero 5 1 +4 109.2 mph 113.7 mph 5
Ketel Marte 4 0 +4 108.3 mph 111.0 mph 5
Nick Kurtz 5 1 +4 108.2 mph 112.0 mph 6
Jordan Walker 4 1 +3 107.7 mph 116.6 mph 6
Carter Jensen 4 1 +3 106.2 mph 108.4 mph 5
Jac Caglianone 4 1 +3 102.5 mph 110.0 mph 6
Bo Bichette 3 0 +3 100.2 mph 107.3 mph 6
Bryan Reynolds 4 2 +2 106.5 mph 110.1 mph 5
William Contreras 2 0 +2 106.1 mph 112.7 mph 4
Austin Riley 2 0 +2 102.9 mph 110.3 mph 6
CJ Abrams 2 0 +2 102.6 mph 109.1 mph 5
Christian Walker 3 1 +2 101.9 mph 108.9 mph 5
MJ Melendez 2 0 +2 101.0 mph 110.1 mph 5
Cam Smith 2 0 +2 100.4 mph 110.5 mph 5
Jonathan Aranda 2 0 +2 100.3 mph 108.7 mph 5
Jo Adell 2 0 +2 100.1 mph 108.5 mph 6
Riley Greene 2 0 +2 100.0 mph 112.0 mph 5
Casey Schmitt 2 0 +2 97.4 mph 106.2 mph 6
Bryson Stott 2 0 +2 97.2 mph 106.2 mph 6
Davis Schneider 3 2 +1 106.3 mph 108.2 mph 3
Jarren Duran 3 2 +1 104.7 mph 110.7 mph 5
James Wood 2 1 +1 104.4 mph 109.4 mph 5
Michael Massey 2 1 +1 102.9 mph 105.6 mph 4
Sal Stewart 2 1 +1 102.9 mph 107.0 mph 5
Manny Machado 2 1 +1 102.5 mph 106.2 mph 5
🍀
Six home runs to freedom

Luck runs out eventually

Sign up to see every barrel-rich batter due for regression — the ones crushing the ball without the HRs to show for it.

19 more waiting in the on-deck circle
What this means: A "barrel" is a batted ball with exit velocity ≥95 mph and a launch angle in the sweet spot (roughly 25–30°). These are the hardest-hit, best-angled balls — the ones that usually leave the yard. When a batter keeps barreling but not homering, they're getting unlucky. The Gap column shows how many barrel games exceeded their HR count. High gap + high EV = prime regression candidate.
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.