2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Unlucky Barrels
Batters who crushed the ball (105+ mph exit velo) without getting paid off — a rolling 7-day view ending on the selected date.
25 batters · 7 days ending 2026-06-13
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_14 - 2026-06-13T14:00:47-04:00
Barrel-Rich, HR-Poor · 7 days ending 2026-06-13
25 batters
Batter Hard-Hit Games HRs Gap Avg Max EV Peak EV Appearances
Otto Lopez 4 0 +4 106.4 mph 111.9 mph 5
Julio Rodríguez 4 0 +4 104.2 mph 114.6 mph 6
Jordan Walker 4 1 +3 108.8 mph 114.7 mph 5
Max Muncy 3 0 +3 102.5 mph 107.8 mph 6
Jorge Mateo 2 0 +2 107.2 mph 109.3 mph 3
Edouard Julien 2 0 +2 106.6 mph 106.6 mph 3
Ryan Vilade 2 0 +2 105.2 mph 113.6 mph 4
Joey Ortiz 2 0 +2 104.8 mph 110.2 mph 4
Cole Young 3 1 +2 104.5 mph 109.4 mph 6
Owen Caissie 3 1 +2 104.5 mph 110.2 mph 5
Junior Caminero 2 0 +2 104.3 mph 112.4 mph 5
Pete Alonso 4 2 +2 103.0 mph 110.7 mph 6
Carter Jensen 2 0 +2 102.5 mph 111.5 mph 4
Garrett Mitchell 2 0 +2 102.0 mph 110.8 mph 5
Isaac Collins 2 0 +2 101.7 mph 106.6 mph 5
Seiya Suzuki 3 1 +2 101.1 mph 112.9 mph 5
Michael Massey 2 0 +2 100.8 mph 108.4 mph 3
Chase Meidroth 2 0 +2 100.6 mph 105.8 mph 5
Dominic Smith 2 0 +2 100.2 mph 105.3 mph 4
Brandon Nimmo 2 0 +2 98.6 mph 110.2 mph 5
Jake Burger 2 0 +2 96.0 mph 112.5 mph 4
Willi Castro 2 0 +2 95.9 mph 108.3 mph 5
James Wood 3 2 +1 108.5 mph 114.3 mph 5
Starling Marte 2 1 +1 108.2 mph 108.6 mph 2
Dylan Crews 2 1 +1 107.0 mph 111.2 mph 3
🍀
Six home runs to freedom

Luck runs out eventually

Sign up to see every barrel-rich batter due for regression — the ones crushing the ball without the HRs to show for it.

19 more waiting in the on-deck circle
What this means: A "barrel" is a batted ball with exit velocity ≥95 mph and a launch angle in the sweet spot (roughly 25–30°). These are the hardest-hit, best-angled balls — the ones that usually leave the yard. When a batter keeps barreling but not homering, they're getting unlucky. The Gap column shows how many barrel games exceeded their HR count. High gap + high EV = prime regression candidate.
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.