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Study Day
📅 2026-08-25
0
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
27
HRs in Slate
96%
Coverage
237
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 27 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
6 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
13 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
6 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
4 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Bryce Elder: {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 1, 'score': 70.0}, {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 5, 'score': 68.0}
HOU Bullpen Proxy: {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 2, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Luis García Jr.', 'rank': 12, 'score': 65.0}
Jacob deGrom: {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 4, 'score': 68.0}, {'batter': 'Miguel Vargas', 'rank': 8, 'score': 64.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Max Muncy | Bryce Elder | 32.9% | 70 | 4.7 | 1.08 | · | 9.5% | |
| 2 | — | Ben Rice | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 25.9% | 73 | 4.7 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | 14.8% | |
| 3 | — | Kyle Schwarber | George Kirby | 35.0% | 69 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 🌧️ | 11.0% | |
| 4 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Jacob deGrom | 35.8% | 68 | 3.2 | 1.04 | · | 13.2% | |
| 5 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Bryce Elder | 32.4% | 68 | 4.7 | 1.08 | · | 10.4% | |
| 6 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Will Warren | 19.4% | 68 | 4.3 | 1.05 | 🌧️ | 11.7% | |
| 7 | — | Matt Olson | Tyler Glasnow | 25.4% | 66 | 3.3 | 1.08 | · | 11.1% | |
| 8 | — | Miguel Vargas | Jacob deGrom | 27.9% | 64 | 3.2 | 1.04 | · | 11.3% | |
| 9 | — | Byron Buxton | Gage Jump | 21.5% | 64 | 4.0 | 1.25 | 🌧️ | 10.0% | |
| 10 | ✅ | Hunter Goodman | Andrew Alvarez | 23.8% | 63 | 3.4 | 1.19 | 🌤️ | 9.8% | 109.5 mph · 432ft · 31.0° |
| 11 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Brandon Pfaadt | 30.5% | 63 | 4.1 | 0.92 | · | 9.5% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Luis García Jr. | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 23.4% | 65 | 4.7 | 1.05 | 🌤️ | 12.1% | 109.5 mph · 379ft · 20.0° |
| 13 | — | CJ Abrams | COL Bullpen Proxy | 19.8% | 63 | 4.9 | 1.19 | ❄ | 10.1% | |
| 14 | — | Junior Caminero | Jackson Jobe | 20.2% | 59 | 5.2 | 0.97 | 🌧️ | 11.2% | |
| 15 | ✅ | Oneil Cruz | Michael King | 27.6% | 59 | 4.4 | 0.90 | 🌤️ | 12.1% | 111.8 mph · 379ft · 19.0° |
All 27 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hunter Goodman | 23.8% | 109.5 | 432ft | 31.0° |
| 12 | Luis García Jr. | 23.4% | 109.5 | 379ft | 20.0° |
| 15 | Oneil Cruz | 27.6% | 111.8 | 379ft | 19.0° |
| 21 | Pete Alonso | 19.8% | 111.3 | 435ft | 27.0° |
| 24 | Jake Burger | 25.4% | 110.2 | 424ft | 25.0° |
| 33 | Cal Raleigh | 16.3% | 106.2 | 362ft | 25.0° |
| 35 | Rafael Devers | 25.4% | 100.8 | 400ft | 34.0° |
| 38 | Justin Foscue | 17.6% | 100.8 | 364ft | 28.0° |
| 48 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 25.9% | 111.8 | 450ft | 30.0° |
| 53 | Ian Happ | 18.2% | 104.4 | 397ft | 25.0° |
| 65 | Heriberto Hernández | 24.2% | 104.4 | 403ft | 33.0° |
| 66 | Jeremy Peña | 15.4% | 101.5 | 385ft | 33.0° |
| 78 | Sal Stewart | 11.5% | 103.2 | 355ft | 26.0° |
| 79 | Tristan Peters | 18.4% | 103.4 | 380ft | 28.0° |
| 84 | Daylen Lile | 10.7% | 104.1 | 401ft | 35.0° |
| 87 | Luis Robert Jr. | 25.2% | 101.8 | 390ft | 33.0° |
| 92 | Carlos Cortes | 11.3% | 100.5 | 391ft | 25.0° |
| 108 | Francisco Lindor | 11.9% | 104.8 | 400ft | 24.0° |
| 119 | Yainer Diaz | 11.2% | 99.2 | 356ft | 37.0° |
| 126 | Mickey Gasper | 11.7% | 102.1 | 418ft | 28.0° |
| 127 | Danny Jansen | 11.6% | 106.6 | 399ft | 31.0° |
| 133 | Cody Bellinger | 12.1% | 102.0 | 368ft | 29.0° |
| 138 | Jarren Duran | 9.0% | 105.0 | 412ft | 31.0° |
| 188 | Vaughn Grissom | 9.3% | 104.9 | 385ft | 38.0° |
| 202 | Nathan Church | 6.7% | 102.8 | 405ft | 27.0° |
| 209 | Ryan Waldschmidt | 5.7% | 102.6 | 408ft | 31.0° |
| 212 | Max Clark | 6.9% | 99.3 | 378ft | 37.0° |