← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-08-20
0
Top-5 Hits
1
Top-15 Hits
12
HRs in Slate
86%
Coverage
151
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
9 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
11 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
9 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
4 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Grayson Rodriguez: {'batter': 'Yordan Alvarez', 'rank': 1, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Cam Smith', 'rank': 9, 'score': 62.0}, {'batter': 'Taylor Trammell', 'rank': 14, 'score': 59.0}
Grant Holmes: {'batter': 'Munetaka Murakami', 'rank': 2, 'score': 76.0}, {'batter': 'Miguel Vargas', 'rank': 5, 'score': 66.0}
Brady Singer: {'batter': 'Jordan Walker', 'rank': 7, 'score': 63.0}, {'batter': 'Alec Burleson', 'rank': 8, 'score': 62.0}
Michael McGreevy: {'batter': 'Sal Stewart', 'rank': 11, 'score': 61.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 12, 'score': 60.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Grayson Rodriguez | 20.9% | 77 | 5.2 | 1.17 | 🌧️ | 13.4% | |
| 2 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Grant Holmes | 35.0% | 76 | 5.0 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | 13.7% | |
| 3 | — | Junior Caminero | Shane Bieber | 27.8% | 71 | 5.8 | 1.08 | ❄ | 11.9% | |
| 4 | — | Matt Olson | Anthony Kay | 26.9% | 71 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 🌤️ | 11.5% | |
| 5 | — | Miguel Vargas | Grant Holmes | 27.8% | 66 | 5.0 | 1.01 | · | 11.4% | |
| 6 | — | Ben Rice | Kyle Bradish | 30.0% | 65 | 4.0 | 1.00 | 🌤️ | 10.6% | |
| 7 | ✅ | Jordan Walker | Brady Singer | 24.9% | 63 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 🌧️ | 10.8% | 108.6 mph · 407ft · 19.0° |
| 8 | — | Alec Burleson | Brady Singer | 28.0% | 62 | 5.2 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | 10.1% | |
| 9 | — | Cam Smith | Grayson Rodriguez | 25.8% | 62 | 5.2 | 1.17 | 🌤️ | 10.8% | |
| 10 | — | Pete Alonso | Gerrit Cole | 27.8% | 61 | 3.4 | 1.00 | 🔥 | 10.5% | |
| 11 | — | Sal Stewart | Michael McGreevy | 22.1% | 61 | 4.3 | 1.07 | ❄ | 11.3% | |
| 12 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Michael McGreevy | 17.0% | 60 | 4.3 | 1.07 | 🌧️ | 11.5% | |
| 13 | — | Max Muncy | Randy Dobnak | 28.4% | 59 | 3.7 | 1.00 | · | 8.2% | |
| 14 | — | Taylor Trammell | Grayson Rodriguez | 22.7% | 59 | 5.2 | 1.17 | 🔥 | 11.2% | |
| 15 | — | Mike Trout | Peter Lambert | 19.0% | 59 | 3.9 | 1.17 | ❄ | 10.3% |
All 12 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jordan Walker | 24.9% | 108.6 | 407ft | 19.0° |
| 23 | Kazuma Okamoto | 14.4% | 107.3 | 415ft | 29.0° |
| 29 | Zach Neto | 13.8% | 107.6 | 428ft | 36.0° |
| 31 | Luis García Jr. | 17.9% | 107.1 | 413ft | 33.0° |
| 44 | Corey Seager | 13.4% | 103.4 | 382ft | 31.0° |
| 50 | Matt McLain | 13.2% | 102.0 | 360ft | 23.0° |
| 53 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 10.7% | 104.3 | 402ft | 31.0° |
| 56 | Willy Adames | 16.1% | 103.4 | 418ft | 30.0° |
| 67 | Spencer Jones | 10.4% | 108.0 | 398ft | 29.0° |
| 101 | Garrett Mitchell | 9.2% | 107.6 | 420ft | 31.0° |
| 116 | Dylan Beavers | 13.4% | 102.2 | 386ft | 29.0° |
| 133 | Nathan Lukes | 9.2% | 97.4 | 380ft | 31.0° |