← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-08-19
0
Top-5 Hits
3
Top-15 Hits
23
HRs in Slate
92%
Coverage
258
Scored
What Happened
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
9 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
13 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
9 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Max Scherzer: {'batter': 'Junior Caminero', 'rank': 1, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Ryan Vilade', 'rank': 12, 'score': 63.0}
Kyle Freeland: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 3, 'score': 71.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 8, 'score': 67.0}
Aaron Nola: {'batter': 'Griffin Conine', 'rank': 4, 'score': 70.0}, {'batter': 'Heriberto Hernández', 'rank': 9, 'score': 65.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Junior Caminero | Max Scherzer | 42.2% | 73 | 6.5 | 1.07 | 🌧️ | 11.1% | |
| 2 | — | Munetaka Murakami | Clay Holmes | 34.4% | 71 | 3.5 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 10.8% | |
| 3 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Kyle Freeland | 29.2% | 71 | 4.7 | 1.04 | · | 13.1% | |
| 4 | — | Griffin Conine | Aaron Nola | 44.9% | 70 | 5.2 | 1.11 | 🌤️ | 12.6% | |
| 5 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Sandy Alcantara | 36.2% | 69 | 3.9 | 1.11 | · | 9.9% | |
| 6 | — | Yordan Alvarez | Walbert Ureña | 18.2% | 69 | 3.8 | 1.18 | · | 9.6% | |
| 7 | — | Matt Olson | Taj Bradley | 31.8% | 68 | 4.1 | 0.94 | 🌤️ | 12.1% | |
| 8 | ✅ | Max Muncy | Kyle Freeland | 27.5% | 67 | 4.7 | 1.04 | · | 12.0% | 105.2 mph · 414ft · 24.0° |
| 9 | — | Heriberto Hernández | Aaron Nola | 32.5% | 65 | 5.2 | 1.11 | · | 11.0% | |
| 10 | — | Mike Trout | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 19.3% | 68 | 4.8 | 1.18 | ❄ | 15.9% | |
| 11 | — | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Sean Newcomb | 27.4% | 64 | 3.0 | 1.08 | 🌤️ | 8.7% | |
| 12 | — | Ryan Vilade | Max Scherzer | 32.9% | 63 | 6.5 | 1.07 | 🔥 | 8.1% | |
| 13 | ✅ | Max Muncy | Seth Lugo | 29.0% | 63 | 4.2 | 1.00 | · | 10.8% | 105.2 mph · 414ft · 24.0° |
| 14 | — | Jac Caglianone | Jeffrey Springs | 28.3% | 63 | 6.2 | 1.00 | 🌤️ | 11.5% | |
| 15 | ✅ | Ben Rice | Chris Bassitt | 27.1% | 63 | 4.8 | 0.99 | 🌤️ | 8.6% | 110.2 mph · 447ft · 33.0° |
All 23 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Max Muncy | 27.5% | 105.2 | 414ft | 24.0° |
| 13 | Max Muncy | 29.0% | 105.2 | 414ft | 24.0° |
| 15 | Ben Rice | 27.1% | 110.2 | 447ft | 33.0° |
| 16 | Pete Alonso | 29.7% | 109.9 | 423ft | 27.0° |
| 24 | Mickey Moniak | 19.1% | 100.4 | 399ft | 38.0° |
| 25 | Brandon Lowe | 29.2% | 105.6 | 359ft | 45.0° |
| 28 | Sal Stewart | 16.5% | 108.2 | 422ft | 31.0° |
| 43 | Yandy Díaz | 18.0% | 104.8 | 414ft | 27.0° |
| 46 | Jordan Walker | 13.6% | 99.4 | 381ft | 30.0° |
| 47 | Andrés Chaparro | 23.1% | 104.5 | 397ft | 34.0° |
| 71 | Mookie Betts | 10.5% | 99.6 | 375ft | 25.0° |
| 105 | José Tena | 19.1% | 105.3 | 415ft | 24.0° |
| 128 | Javier Sanoja | 10.0% | 104.1 | 377ft | 19.0° |
| 144 | Carson Benge | 9.3% | 97.9 | 356ft | 31.0° |
| 147 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 6.6% | 105.9 | 427ft | 24.0° |
| 168 | Christian Vázquez | 15.1% | 101.3 | 383ft | 25.0° |
| 178 | Jarren Duran | 10.1% | 100.1 | 388ft | 37.0° |
| 197 | Dylan Beavers | 10.1% | 102.7 | 389ft | 32.0° |
| 198 | Alejandro Kirk | 9.5% | 95.9 | 383ft | 27.0° |
| 214 | Mickey Gasper | 7.4% | 102.2 | 407ft | 30.0° |
| 217 | Joey Ortiz | 9.1% | 107.5 | 391ft | 19.0° |
| 222 | Luis Arraez | 7.2% | 98.0 | 376ft | 29.0° |
| 249 | Nick Sogard | 5.9% | 101.6 | 385ft | 37.0° |