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Strong Day
📅 2026-06-21
2
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
31
HRs in Slate
91%
Coverage
237
Scored
What Happened
A strong day: 2 of the top 5 hit home runs.
A high-volume day with 31 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
5 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
8 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
13 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Stacking Opportunities
3 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Michael Lorenzen: {'batter': 'Brandon Lowe', 'rank': 4, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Endy Rodríguez', 'rank': 13, 'score': 71.0}, {'batter': 'Tyler Callihan', 'rank': 15, 'score': 70.0}
Brandon Young: {'batter': 'Shohei Ohtani', 'rank': 5, 'score': 77.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 6, 'score': 75.0}, {'batter': 'Ryan Ward', 'rank': 14, 'score': 70.0}
Reid Detmers: {'batter': 'Nick Kurtz', 'rank': 9, 'score': 73.0}, {'batter': 'Max Muncy', 'rank': 12, 'score': 71.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Byron Buxton | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 28.0% | 86 | 4.6 | 0.95 | 🌤️ | 18.9% | |
| 2 | ✅ | Kyle Schwarber | David Peterson | 42.2% | 79 | 3.7 | 1.12 | · | 11.4% | 105.1 mph · 418ft · 35.0° |
| 3 | ✅ | Ben Rice | Chase Burns | 39.5% | 79 | 3.2 | 1.13 | · | 12.2% | 105.1 mph · 375ft · 41.0° |
| 4 | — | Brandon Lowe | Michael Lorenzen | 39.6% | 77 | 5.1 | 1.13 | · | 10.7% | |
| 5 | — | Shohei Ohtani | Brandon Young | 33.0% | 77 | 4.2 | 1.23 | 🔥 | 11.1% | |
| 6 | — | Max Muncy | Brandon Young | 35.0% | 75 | 4.2 | 1.23 | 🌧️ | 10.6% | |
| 7 | — | Juan Soto | Zack Wheeler | 37.7% | 74 | 3.4 | 1.12 | 🌧️ | 10.6% | |
| 8 | — | JJ Bleday | Elmer Rodríguez | 26.7% | 74 | 5.0 | 1.13 | 🌧️ | 6.9% | |
| 9 | ✅ | Nick Kurtz | Reid Detmers | 28.6% | 73 | 2.9 | 1.17 | · | 11.1% | 109.2 mph · 437ft · 27.0° |
| 10 | ✅ | Pete Alonso | Emmet Sheehan | 32.2% | 72 | 4.2 | 1.23 | 🌧️ | 11.2% | 106.8 mph · 398ft · 34.0° |
| 11 | — | James Wood | Nick Martinez | 29.5% | 72 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 🌧️ | 12.7% | |
| 12 | — | Max Muncy | Reid Detmers | 32.8% | 71 | 2.9 | 1.17 | 🌧️ | 10.4% | |
| 13 | — | Endy Rodríguez | Michael Lorenzen | 29.3% | 71 | 5.1 | 1.13 | 🌤️ | 11.2% | |
| 14 | — | Ryan Ward | Brandon Young | 39.5% | 70 | 4.2 | 1.23 | · | 8.4% | |
| 15 | — | Tyler Callihan | Michael Lorenzen | 35.7% | 70 | 5.1 | 1.13 | 🌧️ | 10.8% |
All 31 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber | 42.2% | 105.1 | 418ft | 35.0° |
| 3 | Ben Rice | 39.5% | 105.1 | 375ft | 41.0° |
| 9 | Nick Kurtz | 28.6% | 109.2 | 437ft | 27.0° |
| 10 | Pete Alonso | 32.2% | 106.8 | 398ft | 34.0° |
| 19 | Zach Neto | 30.3% | 94.4 | 391ft | 33.0° |
| 27 | TJ Rumfield | 37.3% | 93.3 | 387ft | 31.0° |
| 28 | Bryan Reynolds | 26.5% | 107.0 | 433ft | 37.0° |
| 31 | Dillon Dingler | 29.8% | 107.6 | 384ft | 20.0° |
| 37 | Colton Cowser | 27.3% | 104.7 | 406ft | 33.0° |
| 38 | Bryce Harper | 20.9% | 108.1 | 390ft | 25.0° |
| 45 | CJ Abrams | 24.7% | 101.2 | 368ft | 38.0° |
| 60 | Dominic Canzone | 27.7% | 100.4 | 348ft | 28.0° |
| 70 | Donovan Walton | 17.1% | 99.5 | 391ft | 34.0° |
| 94 | Jac Caglianone | 18.5% | 108.1 | 426ft | 34.0° |
| 100 | Wyatt Langford | 18.3% | 105.4 | 403ft | 35.0° |
| 103 | Tyler Stephenson | 8.2% | 104.0 | 401ft | 28.0° |
| 118 | Carson Benge | 9.6% | 96.2 | 359ft | 30.0° |
| 119 | Kyle Stowers | 17.6% | 106.2 | 426ft | 31.0° |
| 134 | Blaze Alexander | 8.8% | 99.6 | 390ft | 32.0° |
| 141 | Jonny DeLuca | 13.4% | 102.6 | 396ft | 25.0° |
| 148 | Carter Jensen | 10.0% | 99.7 | 374ft | 25.0° |
| 150 | Taylor Ward | 8.3% | 102.0 | 388ft | 30.0° |
| 154 | Iván Herrera | 12.1% | 100.8 | 414ft | 29.0° |
| 163 | Denzer Guzman | 8.2% | 101.6 | 416ft | 23.0° |
| 177 | William Contreras | 8.7% | 109.5 | 408ft | 23.0° |
| 180 | Nick Gonzales | 7.8% | 102.2 | 431ft | 29.0° |
| 181 | JJ Wetherholt | 7.3% | 93.7 | 360ft | 40.0° |
| 184 | Ryan Vilade | 9.9% | 106.8 | 436ft | 26.0° |
| 199 | Nick Loftin | 6.3% | 101.3 | 416ft | 30.0° |
| 225 | Masyn Winn | 7.2% | 100.5 | 410ft | 25.0° |
| 232 | Luisangel Acuña | 6.0% | 104.8 | 416ft | 22.0° |