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Study Day
📅 2026-06-17
1
Top-5 Hits
1
Top-15 Hits
38
HRs in Slate
95%
Coverage
234
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 38 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
8 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
Warm Weather
7 top-15 batters played in 75°F+ conditions
HR-Friendly Parks
9 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Anthony Kay: {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 1, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Jasson Domínguez', 'rank': 8, 'score': 75.0}
Gavin Williams: {'batter': 'Jake Bauers', 'rank': 3, 'score': 79.0}, {'batter': 'Jackson Chourio', 'rank': 5, 'score': 76.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Ben Rice | Anthony Kay | 40.4% | 83 | 5.5 | 1.14 | 🌧️ | 12.6% | |
| 2 | — | Esteury Ruiz | Andrew Painter | 32.5% | 82 | 5.2 | 1.10 | 🌤️ | 8.3% | |
| 3 | — | Jake Bauers | Gavin Williams | 36.9% | 79 | 3.9 | 1.03 | 🌤️ | 12.7% | |
| 4 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Sandy Alcantara | 37.5% | 76 | 4.0 | 1.10 | 🌧️ | 11.8% | |
| 5 | ✅ | Jackson Chourio | Gavin Williams | 34.1% | 76 | 3.9 | 1.03 | · | 13.6% | 100.2 mph · 366ft · 34.0° |
| 6 | — | James Wood | Luinder Avila | 34.1% | 75 | 5.2 | 1.02 | 🌧️ | 14.5% | |
| 7 | — | Nick Kurtz | Braxton Ashcraft | 40.9% | 75 | 3.1 | 1.17 | · | 10.2% | |
| 8 | — | Jasson Domínguez | Anthony Kay | 27.8% | 75 | 5.5 | 1.14 | ❄ | 5.0% | |
| 9 | — | Brandon Lowe | Aaron Civale | 36.4% | 74 | 5.6 | 1.17 | 🌧️ | 10.0% | |
| 10 | — | Matt Olson | SF Bullpen Proxy | 25.3% | 74 | 4.2 | 0.92 | · | 14.4% | |
| 11 | — | Juan Soto | Nick Lodolo | 21.7% | 73 | 6.6 | 1.20 | ❄ | 13.2% | |
| 12 | — | Matt Olson | Adrian Houser | 31.6% | 73 | 5.2 | 0.92 | · | 11.8% | |
| 13 | — | JJ Bleday | Nolan McLean | 35.4% | 72 | 3.7 | 1.20 | 🌧️ | 8.5% | |
| 14 | — | Ian Happ | COL Bullpen Proxy | 28.6% | 72 | 4.8 | 1.01 | 🌧️ | 14.6% | |
| 15 | — | Randal Grichuk | Carlos Rodón | 28.6% | 72 | 3.7 | 1.14 | · | 8.4% |
All 38 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jackson Chourio | 34.1% | 100.2 | 366ft | 34.0° |
| 16 | Dominic Canzone | 29.9% | 101.9 | 374ft | 39.0° |
| 17 | Colson Montgomery | 37.8% | 104.9 | 412ft | 27.0° |
| 18 | Paul Goldschmidt | 37.0% | 100.0 | 349ft | 25.0° |
| 23 | Hunter Goodman | 25.1% | 107.7 | 417ft | 22.0° |
| 25 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 22.2% | 99.2 | 364ft | 41.0° |
| 33 | Owen Caissie | 17.5% | 99.9 | 406ft | 29.0° |
| 34 | Bryce Eldridge | 25.6% | 100.9 | 406ft | 33.0° |
| 35 | Corbin Carroll | 24.4% | 100.8 | 378ft | 38.0° |
| 40 | Cody Bellinger | 12.7% | 92.2 | 363ft | 28.0° |
| 42 | Zach Neto | 19.6% | 106.8 | 431ft | 28.0° |
| 53 | Kerry Carpenter | 20.6% | 96.6 | 337ft | 33.0° |
| 55 | Zack Gelof | 24.3% | 96.8 | 363ft | 36.0° |
| 58 | Ryan O'Hearn | 17.3% | 98.2 | 360ft | 36.0° |
| 69 | Freddie Freeman | 11.5% | 102.6 | 407ft | 27.0° |
| 71 | Kyle Stowers | 11.1% | 107.7 | 436ft | 25.0° |
| 77 | Carter Jensen | 11.8% | 96.4 | 366ft | 30.0° |
| 89 | Lane Thomas | 11.8% | 100.8 | 411ft | 24.0° |
| 92 | Willy Adames | 19.6% | 102.1 | 400ft | 32.0° |
| 93 | Joe Mack | 9.3% | 103.5 | 401ft | 30.0° |
| 94 | Mauricio Dubón | 14.0% | 105.1 | 395ft | 23.0° |
| 95 | Michael Massey | 12.7% | 105.6 | 430ft | 23.0° |
| 124 | Mauricio Dubón | 11.6% | 105.1 | 395ft | 23.0° |
| 126 | Willy Adames | 12.9% | 102.1 | 400ft | 32.0° |
| 128 | Daniel Schneemann | 10.2% | 99.4 | 386ft | 29.0° |
| 136 | Jackson Merrill | 7.2% | 106.2 | 423ft | 31.0° |
| 142 | Gunnar Henderson | 10.6% | 102.6 | 370ft | 37.0° |
| 150 | Marcell Ozuna | 9.2% | 107.1 | 448ft | 26.0° |
| 156 | Christian Yelich | 9.0% | 103.8 | 387ft | 33.0° |
| 157 | Kevin McGonigle | 6.1% | 96.5 | 340ft | 38.0° |
| 161 | Sam Antonacci | 8.5% | 105.1 | 422ft | 28.0° |
| 167 | Kyle Karros | 5.8% | 100.3 | 393ft | 29.0° |
| 171 | Jakob Marsee | 8.0% | 102.5 | 394ft | 34.0° |
| 180 | Dansby Swanson | 7.7% | 102.0 | 384ft | 46.0° |
| 189 | Cole Young | 7.3% | 101.5 | 375ft | 33.0° |
| 193 | Jeremy Peña | 7.0% | 101.5 | 360ft | 21.0° |
| 195 | Luis Arráez | 6.9% | 98.6 | 380ft | 36.0° |
| 230 | Sterlin Thompson | 6.8% | 99.7 | 406ft | 29.0° |