← Case Studies
Study Day
📅 2026-05-05
1
Top-5 Hits
4
Top-15 Hits
25
HRs in Slate
86%
Coverage
261
Scored
What Happened
A high-volume day with 25 HRs across scored matchups.
Pitcher vulnerability was the dominant signal — multiple arms with elevated FIP and HR/FB rates.
Why It Worked
Pitcher Vulnerability
8 of the top 15 faced pitchers with FIP ≥ 4.50
HR-Friendly Parks
7 top-15 matchups in parks with factor ≥ 1.05
Hot Bats
7 top-15 batters trending HOT or WARM
Stacking Opportunities
2 same-pitcher stacks for parlay potential
🔥 High Conviction Day
0 matchups met the Golden criteria (pitcher FIP > 5.0 AND HR/FB > 20%).
Stack Alerts:
Jameson Taillon: {'batter': 'Nathaniel Lowe', 'rank': 1, 'score': 83.0}, {'batter': 'Elly De La Cruz', 'rank': 2, 'score': 82.0}
Jacob deGrom: {'batter': 'Aaron Judge', 'rank': 4, 'score': 79.0}, {'batter': 'Ben Rice', 'rank': 5, 'score': 78.0}
Top 15 Matchups
| # | Result | Batter | Pitcher | HR/FB | Score | FIP | Park | Form | Barrel | HR Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ✅ | Nathaniel Lowe | Jameson Taillon | 38.9% | 83 | 6.0 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | nan% | 108.1 mph · 404ft · 23.0° |
| 2 | — | Elly De La Cruz | Jameson Taillon | 36.8% | 82 | 6.0 | 1.06 | · | nan% | |
| 3 | — | Seiya Suzuki | Andrew Abbott | 35.0% | 80 | 5.0 | 1.06 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 4 | — | Aaron Judge | Jacob deGrom | 47.2% | 79 | 3.2 | 1.25 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 5 | — | Ben Rice | Jacob deGrom | 44.5% | 78 | 3.2 | 1.25 | · | nan% | |
| 6 | — | Oneil Cruz | Eduardo Rodriguez | 39.7% | 78 | 5.0 | 0.87 | 🌧️ | nan% | |
| 7 | — | Kyle Schwarber | Luis Severino | 34.1% | 77 | 4.9 | 1.02 | · | nan% | |
| 8 | — | Junior Caminero | Kevin Gausman | 38.7% | 76 | 2.6 | 0.95 | 🌤️ | nan% | |
| 9 | — | James Wood | Taj Bradley | 36.6% | 75 | 3.8 | 1.00 | · | nan% | |
| 10 | — | Mickey Moniak | Freddy Peralta | 42.7% | 75 | 3.9 | 1.10 | · | nan% | |
| 11 | — | Ildemaro Vargas | Bubba Chandler | 34.4% | 75 | 5.7 | 0.87 | · | nan% | |
| 12 | ✅ | Mike Trout | Erick Fedde | 40.3% | 74 | 4.9 | 0.96 | 🌧️ | nan% | 102.1 mph · 367ft · 27.0° |
| 13 | ✅ | Matt Olson | George Kirby | 31.7% | 73 | 3.8 | 1.07 | 🌤️ | nan% | 110.5 mph · 412ft · 23.0° |
| 14 | ✅ | Liam Hicks | Chris Bassitt | 31.9% | 72 | 6.3 | 0.94 | 🌤️ | nan% | 107.5 mph · 431ft · 29.0° |
| 15 | — | Shea Langeliers | Cristopher Sánchez | 30.5% | 70 | 2.6 | 1.02 | 🌤️ | nan% |
All 25 HRs in Slate
Show all ranked picks that hit
| # | Batter | HR/FB | EV | Dist | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Lowe | 38.9% | 108.1 | 404ft | 23.0° |
| 12 | Mike Trout | 40.3% | 102.1 | 367ft | 27.0° |
| 13 | Matt Olson | 31.7% | 110.5 | 412ft | 23.0° |
| 14 | Liam Hicks | 31.9% | 107.5 | 431ft | 29.0° |
| 19 | Christian Walker | 30.7% | 107.2 | 395ft | 39.0° |
| 20 | Jorge Soler | 30.6% | 105.9 | 410ft | 26.0° |
| 29 | Kazuma Okamoto | 22.5% | 107.9 | 409ft | 23.0° |
| 37 | Bryce Harper | 23.3% | 107.2 | 408ft | 34.0° |
| 44 | Byron Buxton | 23.7% | 106.4 | 387ft | 41.0° |
| 56 | Casey Schmitt | 24.5% | 106.1 | 386ft | 36.0° |
| 73 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 16.0% | 110.9 | 413ft | 34.0° |
| 76 | Willson Contreras | 19.5% | 111.9 | 449ft | 32.0° |
| 89 | Michael Busch | 11.5% | 105.8 | 427ft | 30.0° |
| 107 | Zach Neto | 14.3% | 104.7 | 410ft | 34.0° |
| 111 | Rhys Hoskins | 13.1% | 98.4 | 343ft | 26.0° |
| 127 | Ryan McMahon | 10.4% | 97.3 | 359ft | 29.0° |
| 155 | William Contreras | 8.5% | 111.9 | 449ft | 32.0° |
| 169 | Otto Lopez | 7.4% | 106.5 | 415ft | 25.0° |
| 172 | Isaac Collins | 8.4% | 104.9 | 382ft | 21.0° |
| 182 | Bryson Stott | 7.1% | 103.6 | 398ft | 33.0° |
| 191 | Xander Bogaerts | 10.4% | 100.3 | 391ft | 28.0° |
| 213 | Matt Vierling | 6.2% | 96.7 | 365ft | 39.0° |
| 225 | J.P. Crawford | 7.2% | 102.6 | 395ft | 28.0° |
| 255 | Wilyer Abreu | 4.3% | 109.1 | 396ft | 23.0° |
| 256 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.7% | 98.0 | 362ft | 30.0° |