2
HRs allowed
11.8%
HR rate (pool)
3.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.12
FIP
4.11
xFIP
-0.99
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
3
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 3th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
35.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 406 ft
max EV allowed 110.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Paul Blackburn.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
33.5%
84.9
9.6°
0
-1.6
Changeup Offspeed
20.9%
79.0
10.2°
1
-4.6
Cutter Hard
20.5%
83.1
19.7°
2
+0.3
Curveball Breaking
14.4%
76.2
-14.8°
1
-1.7
Sweeper Breaking
6.9%
77.1
25.6°
1
+0.4
Fastball Hard
2.9%
83.3
34.3°
1
+4.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups17
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate11.8%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB3.5% 3
HR/9—
FIP3.12 16
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP-0.99 5
Barrel% allowed35.3%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Sinker
Hard · 33.5% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle9.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches371
Changeup
Offspeed · 20.9% usage
-4.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.0 mph
Avg launch angle10.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches232
Cutter
Hard · 20.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches227
Curveball
Breaking · 14.4% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.2 mph
Avg launch angle-14.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches160
Sweeper
Breaking · 6.9% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.1 mph
Avg launch angle25.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches76
Fastball
Hard · 2.9% usage
+4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle34.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches32
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Paul Blackburn.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 406 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
8
1
108.3
2026-05-07
9
1
110.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Paul Blackburn isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Paul Blackburn isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Paul Blackburn
How many home runs has Paul Blackburn allowed this season?
Paul Blackburn has allowed 2 home runs across 2 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Paul Blackburn?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Paul Blackburn include Ezequiel Duran (1), Junior Caminero (1), Matt Olson (1) and 1 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.