2
HRs allowed
11.8%
HR rate (pool)
3.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.12
FIP
4.11
xFIP
-0.99
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
3
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 3th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
87.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 406 ft
max EV allowed 110.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 1 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Paul Blackburn.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
32.9%
84.5
12.3°
0
-1.2
Cutter Hard
25.5%
83.7
19.8°
2
+0.9
Changeup Offspeed
17.0%
80.3
3.0°
1
-5.0
Curveball Breaking
13.6%
77.5
-15.1°
0
-3.3
Sweeper Breaking
6.1%
76.0
19.6°
1
+0.9
Fastball Hard
3.5%
82.0
26.0°
0
+0.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups17
HRs allowed (pool)2
Pool HR rate11.8%
Pool HR/game day1.0
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB3.5% 3
HR/9—
FIP3.12 18
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP-0.99 5
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed87.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Sinker
Hard · 32.9% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle12.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches232
Cutter
Hard · 25.5% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle19.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches180
Changeup
Offspeed · 17.0% usage
-5.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.3 mph
Avg launch angle3.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches120
Curveball
Breaking · 13.6% usage
-3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.5 mph
Avg launch angle-15.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches96
Sweeper
Breaking · 6.1% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches43
Fastball
Hard · 3.5% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.0 mph
Avg launch angle26.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches25
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Paul Blackburn.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
2 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 406 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-09
8
1
108.3
2026-05-07
9
1
110.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Paul Blackburn isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.