14
HRs allowed
19.4%
HR rate (pool)
20.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.64
FIP
4.11
xFIP
+0.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
88
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 88th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.2 EV · 374 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR
30D · 10 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Lance McCullers Jr..
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
27.0%
82.7
21.9°
1
-0.4
Sinker Hard
22.7%
85.3
13.8°
2
+0.0
Sweeper Breaking
16.7%
84.0
23.8°
1
+1.6
Knuckle Curve Breaking
15.7%
86.2
-2.2°
1
+1.9
Changeup Offspeed
13.6%
82.7
5.8°
1
+1.2
Fastball Hard
4.3%
87.0
3.3°
1
+6.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups72
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate19.4%
Pool HR/game day1.75
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB20.0% 88
HR/9—
FIP4.64 71
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP+0.53 75
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Cutter
Hard · 27.0% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle21.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches188
Sinker
Hard · 22.7% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle13.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches158
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.7% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle23.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches116
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 15.7% usage
+1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle-2.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches109
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.6% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle5.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches95
Fastball
Hard · 4.3% usage
+6.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.0 mph
Avg launch angle3.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches30
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Lance McCullers Jr..
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.2 EV · 374 ft
10 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-13
9
2
104.7
2026-05-06
9
1
109.7
2026-04-30
9
1
107.3
2026-04-24
9
4
111.8
2026-04-18
9
2
106.6
2026-04-11
9
3
107.8
2026-04-05
9
1
109.7
2026-03-30
9
0
111.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Lance McCullers Jr. isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.