14
HRs allowed
19.4%
HR rate (pool)
20.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.64
FIP
4.11
xFIP
+0.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
87
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
20.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed
74.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.2 EV · 374 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR
30D · 10 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Lance McCullers Jr..
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Cutter Hard
27.6%
82.2
22.2°
1
-0.2
Sinker Hard
21.9%
84.5
14.1°
2
-0.1
Sweeper Breaking
17.3%
81.4
23.7°
1
+1.7
Changeup Offspeed
14.9%
83.9
4.5°
1
+1.2
Knuckle Curve Breaking
14.6%
86.5
-3.4°
1
+1.4
Fastball Hard
3.7%
88.5
1.4°
1
+6.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups72
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate19.4%
Pool HR/game day1.75
Top-15 matchups15
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB20.0% 87
HR/9—
FIP4.64 72
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP+0.53 77
Barrel% allowed20.8%
Hard-Hit% allowed74.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Cutter
Hard · 27.6% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle22.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches219
Sinker
Hard · 21.9% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle14.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches174
Sweeper
Breaking · 17.3% usage
+1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches137
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.9% usage
+1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle4.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches118
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 14.6% usage
+1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle-3.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches116
Fastball
Hard · 3.7% usage
+6.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.5 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches29
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Lance McCullers Jr..
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.2 EV · 374 ft
10 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-13
9
2
104.7
2026-05-06
9
1
109.7
2026-04-30
9
1
107.3
2026-04-24
9
4
111.8
2026-04-18
9
2
106.6
2026-04-11
9
3
107.8
2026-04-05
9
1
109.7
2026-03-30
9
0
111.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Lance McCullers Jr. isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Lance McCullers Jr. isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
45
9
20%
9
3
33%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Lance McCullers Jr.
How many home runs has Lance McCullers Jr. allowed this season?
Lance McCullers Jr. has allowed 14 home runs across 8 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Lance McCullers Jr.?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Lance McCullers Jr. include Adolis Garcia (1), Alec Burleson (1), Andy Pages (1) and 24 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.