0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
9.4%
Overall HR/FB
4.5
FIP
4.95
xFIP
#13
Leakiest SP today (of 14, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
19
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 19th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 46.4%
BRK 41.4%
OFF 12.2%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 3
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (46.4% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
39.4%
87.1
25.3°
3
-2.1
Slider Breaking
30.6%
82.9
14.2°
1
-0.2
Changeup Offspeed
12.2%
84.5
2.2°
0
-3.2
Curveball Breaking
10.8%
86.7
-0.1°
1
+0.5
Sinker Hard
7.0%
78.5
-10.1°
0
+2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB9.4% 19
HR/9—
FIP4.5 67
xFIP4.95
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-27
Fastball
Hard · 39.4% usage
-2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.1 mph
Avg launch angle25.3°
HRs allowed3
Pitches369
Slider
Breaking · 30.6% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches287
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.2% usage
-3.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle2.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches114
Curveball
Breaking · 10.8% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.7 mph
Avg launch angle-0.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches101
Sinker
Hard · 7.0% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle-10.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches66
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Gordon Graceffo.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Busch Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.818
Wind
8 mph from NNE
Temp
84°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:15p
8
84°
-10
2:15p
8
84°
-10
3:15p
8
84°
-10
4:15p
8
84°
-10
5:15p
8
83°
-11
-10
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 8 mph from NNE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
336ft
avg
CF
400ft
avg
RF
335ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
358ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
359ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 335 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Gordon Graceffo.
Common questions about Gordon Graceffo
Is Gordon Graceffo likely to give up a home run tonight?
Gordon Graceffo pitches tonight (BAL @ STL at Busch Stadium). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.