TOR
@
1:35p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 1:35p
· roof open
Park 0.92×
Wind 12 mph slight_out
78°F
open
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
1:35p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
2:35p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
3:35p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
4:35p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
1 mph · cross
68°F
5:35p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.01
78°F, wind 12 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 23 | 0.248 | 90.2 | 8.2% | 37.9% vs RHP | 403 | 20.9% | 33.3% | 27.4% | 27 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 69 | 0.177 | 90.2 | 7.3% | 37.9% vs RHP | 391 | 16.2% | 16.7% | 15.5% | 30 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 39 | ⚪ D | · | · | 87 | 0.156 | 89.9 | 7.4% | 12.3% vs RHP | 395 | 11.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 88 | 0.177 | 86.8 | 5.6% | 16.2% vs RHP | 370 | 10.6% | 16.7% | 10.5% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 95 | 0.138 | 87.8 | 5.6% | 0.0% vs RHP | 398 | 13.3% | 25.0% | 9.3% | 9 |
| 6 |
|
Caleb Durbin ⚡ | 25 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 126 | 0.110 | 85.2 | 3.7% | 10.0% vs RHP | 396 | 3.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 31 |
| 7 |
|
Connor Wong | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 129 | 0.109 | 87.3 | 4.1% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 8 |
| 8 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 20 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 132 | 0.066 | 89.1 | 4.7% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 26 |
| 9 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 18 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 135 | 0.056 | 82.2 | 3.9% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 5.2% | 31 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 54 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 34 | 0.205 | 92.1 | 10.5% | 29.7% vs RHP | 402 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 21.4% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Brandon Valenzuela | 52 | 🟠 C | · | · | 40 | 0.198 | 89.2 | 8.4% | 26.3% vs RHP | 397 | 15.8% | 33.3% | 22.2% | 18 |
| 3 |
|
Jesús Sánchez | 47 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 57 | 0.188 | 91.4 | 9.4% | 22.9% vs RHP | 398 | 11.8% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 20 |
| 4 |
|
George Springer | 42 | ⚪ D | · | · | 75 | 0.170 | 87.8 | 7.8% | 21.4% vs RHP | 387 | 9.5% | 18.2% | 13.8% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Ernie Clement | 34 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 105 | 0.149 | 85.4 | 4.6% | 8.5% vs RHP | 374 | 10.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% | 40 |
| 6 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 121 | 0.144 | 86.0 | 5.0% | 15.6% vs RHP | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.4% | 24 |
| 7 |
|
Nathan Lukes | 18 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 134 | 0.077 | 86.1 | 2.8% | 5.9% vs RHP | 374 | 1.9% | 0.0% | 6.6% | 32 |