TOR
@
6:45p
BOS
Stadium Conditions
Fenway Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 0.94×
Wind 8 mph slight_out
77°F
open
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
-2
1 mph · cross
68°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.03
77°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 69 | 🔵 C+ | +575 | · | 17 | 0.252 | 90.2 | 12.8% | 37.9% vs RHP | 403 | 21.2% | 33.3% | 36.2% | 29 |
| 2 |
|
Jarren Duran | 51 | 🟠 C | +900 | 🌧️ COOL | 83 | 0.169 | 90.2 | 11.5% | 34.5% vs RHP | 391 | 16.4% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 31 |
| 3 |
|
Wilyer Abreu ⚡ | 48 | ⚪ D | +950 | 🌤️ WARM | 91 | 0.158 | 89.9 | 11.6% | 12.5% vs RHP | 395 | 11.9% | 16.7% | 9.3% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 46 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 114 | 0.176 | 86.8 | 8.8% | 17.1% vs RHP | 370 | 10.8% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Andruw Monasterio | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 120 | 0.138 | 87.8 | 8.8% | 0.0% vs RHP | 398 | 14.3% | 33.3% | 9.1% | 7 |
| 6 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 193 | 0.087 | 86.6 | 8.5% | 2.9% vs RHP | 388 | 4.2% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 19 |
| 7 |
|
Masataka Yoshida | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 214 | 0.104 | 88.9 | 4.5% | 3.7% vs RHP | 393 | 4.8% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 18 |
| 8 |
|
Mickey Gasper | 25 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 220 | 0.066 | 89.1 | 7.3% | 0.0% vs RHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 24 |
| 9 |
|
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 23 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 226 | 0.058 | 82.2 | 6.1% | 0.0% vs RHP | 393 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 32 |
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kazuma Okamoto | 56 | 🟠 C | · | ❄ COLD | 64 | 0.206 | 92.1 | 10.6% | 28.6% vs LHP | 402 | 17.0% | 16.7% | 18.3% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Jesús Sánchez | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 92 | 0.188 | 91.4 | 9.5% | 0.0% vs LHP | 398 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 7.3% | 21 |
| 3 |
|
Alejandro Kirk | 48 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 93 | 0.273 | 87.8 | 5.7% | 33.3% | 394 | 6.7% | 0.0% | 15.7% | 9 |
| 4 |
|
George Springer | 43 | ⚪ D | · | · | 136 | 0.158 | 87.8 | 7.8% | 13.3% vs LHP | 387 | 9.7% | 20.0% | 10.6% | 31 |
| 5 |
|
Davis Schneider | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 145 | 0.109 | 87.6 | 9.2% | 0.0% vs LHP | 390 | 5.7% | 66.7% | 6.6% | 7 |
| 6 |
|
Ernie Clement | 36 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 176 | 0.152 | 85.4 | 4.6% | 15.0% vs LHP | 374 | 10.1% | 16.7% | 8.0% | 41 |
| 7 |
|
Andres Gimenez | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 203 | 0.130 | 86.0 | 5.0% | 12.5% vs LHP | 387 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 23 |
| 8 |
|
Myles Straw | 25 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 219 | 0.087 | 86.4 | 5.8% | 5.6% vs LHP | 389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 22 |