⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
TB
@ 6:45p
PIT
PNC Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.68×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
warm air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.684
Temp
73.8°F
Wind
3.8 mph
out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Oneil Cruz Oneil Cruz 75 🟡 B · · 23 0.250 97.1 20.5% 41.7% 418 28.6% 22.2% 15.1% 37
2 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 50 0.353 84.6 11.9% 53.8% 390 8.3% 0.0% 25.7% 33
3 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 51 🟠 C · · 86 0.177 93.1 10.9% 25.0% 405 21.4% 12.5% 8.7% 31
4 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 43 ⚪ D · · 118 0.191 89.4 10.0% 20.0% 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 37
5 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 192 0.073 88.0 2.9% 10.0% · 5.9% 10.0% 5.5% 25
6 Konnor Griffin Konnor Griffin 28 ⚪ D · · 198 0.096 86.7 7.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0
7 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 23 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 225 0.053 87.3 2.6% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 24
8 Nick Yorke Nick Yorke 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 233 0.064 89.4 6.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 29
9 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 19 ⚪ D · · 237 0.087 83.7 0.0% 12.5% 376 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 27
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 57 🟠 C · · 68 0.203 90.2 8.5% 33.3% 399 26.7% 40.0% 17.0% 39
2 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 52 🟠 C · · 84 0.194 93.0 10.2% 15.0% 399 14.3% 11.1% 8.1% 33
3 Jake Fraley Jake Fraley 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 87 0.157 87.9 4.0% 11.1% · 25.0% 50.0% 7.0% 18
4 Jonny DeLuca Jonny DeLuca 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 107 0.222 89.2 3.6% 33.3% 438 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 18
5 Yandy Díaz Yandy Díaz 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 109 0.186 91.9 7.3% 21.4% 368 16.7% 25.0% 8.3% 39
6 Nick Fortes Nick Fortes 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 222 0.140 87.2 2.4% 12.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 26
7 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 234 0.103 87.0 2.5% 6.7% 367 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 32
8 Ben Williamson Ben Williamson 17 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 245 0.078 85.2 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 25
9 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 248 0.058 82.7 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 48
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.85

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.