TB
@
—
MIN
Park Factor
0.95×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light wind out · roof open
Combined
0.665
Temp
33.7°F
Wind
5.8 mph
out
Roof
open
Mick Abel
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Yandy Diaz | 64 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🔥 HOT | 16 | 0.182 | 93.0 | 8.4% | 18.2% | 379 | 66.7% | 66.7% | 16.6% | 28 |
| 2 |
|
Junior Caminero | 62 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 20 | 0.271 | 92.4 | 10.9% | 24.5% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 15 |
| 3 |
|
Jonathan Aranda | 60 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 29 | 0.173 | 93.0 | 10.4% | 14.7% | 398 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 14.9% | 20 |
| 4 |
|
Brandon Lowe | 59 | 🟠 C | · | 🌧️ COOL | 31 | 0.221 | 91.1 | 10.5% | 22.0% | 400 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 18.2% | 16 |
| 5 |
|
Christopher Morel | 49 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 91 | 0.176 | 91.8 | 11.2% | 14.5% | 404 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.8% | 6 |
| 6 |
|
Josh Lowe | 46 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 110 | 0.146 | 88.6 | 7.1% | 12.9% | 392 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 16 |
| 7 |
|
Taylor Walls | 30 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 200 | 0.099 | 87.0 | 5.2% | 4.8% | 388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 4 |
| 8 |
|
Jake Mangum | 20 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 236 | 0.072 | 87.3 | 4.7% | 4.1% | 405 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 15 |
| 9 |
|
Chandler Simpson | 16 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 241 | 0.051 | 84.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 22 |
Steven Matz
LHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Matt Wallner | 62 | 🔵 C+ | · | · | 21 | 0.262 | 91.0 | 9.3% | 19.6% | 406 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 13.3% | 14 |
| 2 |
|
Byron Buxton | 58 | 🟠 C | · | 🌤️ WARM | 39 | 0.287 | 92.5 | 10.5% | 21.3% | 406 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 10 |
| 3 |
|
Royce Lewis | 49 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 98 | 0.152 | 89.8 | 7.4% | 9.6% | 402 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 9.3% | 22 |
| 4 |
|
Trevor Larnach | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 139 | 0.153 | 90.9 | 6.7% | 12.0% | 405 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 12 |
| 5 |
|
Luke Keaschall | 40 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 146 | 0.143 | 86.2 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 399 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 25 |
| 6 |
|
Ryan Jeffers | 37 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 169 | 0.131 | 89.3 | 6.3% | 7.0% | 411 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 20 |
| 7 |
|
Edouard Julien | 35 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 181 | 0.104 | 89.2 | 8.8% | 10.3% | 391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 14 |
| 8 |
|
Brooks Lee | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 190 | 0.133 | 88.6 | 6.0% | 10.3% | 383 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 20 |
| 9 |
|
Christian Vazquez | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🔥 HOT | 197 | 0.084 | 85.9 | 4.9% | 4.1% | 386 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 6.1% | 5 |