0
HRs allowed
0.0%
HR rate (pool)
15.8%
Overall HR/FB
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
76
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 76th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
50.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
max EV allowed 107.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Mick Abel.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
42.7%
81.4
30.2°
0
+0.5
Changeup Offspeed
16.6%
86.2
15.1°
0
-2.0
Slider Breaking
14.6%
82.4
22.4°
0
-1.8
Curveball Breaking
11.3%
74.0
-9.4°
0
+0.9
Sweeper Breaking
10.2%
72.5
22.1°
0
-0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups18
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0.0%
Pool HR/game day0.0
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB15.8% 76
HR/9—
FIP—
xFIP—
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed50.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-18
Fastball
Hard · 42.7% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle30.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches167
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.6% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle15.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches65
Slider
Breaking · 14.6% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle22.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches57
Curveball
Breaking · 11.3% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.0 mph
Avg launch angle-9.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches44
Sweeper
Breaking · 10.2% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against72.5 mph
Avg launch angle22.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches40
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Mick Abel.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-04-09
9
0
105.8
2026-04-04
9
0
107.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Mick Abel isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.