⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs
TB
@
MIL
American Family Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.13×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
cold air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof
Combined
1.017
Temp
33.6°F
Wind
20.7 mph
slight_out
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz 67 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 12 0.182 93.0 8.1% 18.2% 379 50.0% 50.0% 16.4% 28
2 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 15 0.271 92.4 10.5% 24.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 15
3 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 19 0.173 93.0 10.1% 14.7% 398 25.0% 25.0% 14.8% 20
4 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 62 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 22 0.221 91.1 10.1% 22.0% 400 25.0% 25.0% 18.1% 16
5 Christopher Morel Christopher Morel 51 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 79 0.176 91.8 10.8% 14.5% 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 6
6 Josh Lowe Josh Lowe 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 98 0.146 88.6 6.8% 12.9% 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 16
7 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 208 0.099 87.0 5.0% 4.8% 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 4
8 Jake Mangum Jake Mangum 23 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 235 0.072 87.3 4.5% 4.1% 405 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 15
9 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 239 0.051 84.3 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 22
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 William Contreras William Contreras 60 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 32 0.140 91.1 6.3% 12.4% 387 20.0% 20.0% 14.3% 18
2 Brice Turang Brice Turang 53 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 60 0.147 91.1 7.0% 13.3% 408 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 15
3 Rhys Hoskins Rhys Hoskins 53 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 61 0.179 90.2 8.1% 13.0% 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 16
4 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 53 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 66 0.117 85.5 4.4% 7.8% 390 20.0% 20.0% 11.3% 20
5 Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 96 0.193 89.3 7.8% 12.4% 397 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 9
6 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 44 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 127 0.188 90.2 8.1% 29.6% 395 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 20
7 Isaac Collins Isaac Collins 44 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 129 0.148 88.8 5.6% 9.4% 374 25.0% 25.0% 12.4% 11
8 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 174 0.130 85.2 5.0% 7.3% 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 24
9 Joey Ortiz Joey Ortiz 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 189 0.087 84.9 4.3% 4.7% 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 17
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.