2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
STL
@ 2:10p
MIN
Target Field · 16 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Target Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof open
Park 0.98× Wind 7 mph out 72°F open
-3
5 mph · cross
64°F
2:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · cross
64°F
3:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · cross
64°F
4:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · cross
64°F
5:10p
Neutral for HR environment
-3
5 mph · cross
64°F
6:10p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.18

72°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore LHP 💥 Meltdown
1.43 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.44 ·
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 78 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 5 0.319 90.6 13.1% 22.2% vs LHP 401 33.3% 40.0% 25.7% 28
2 Kody Clemens Kody Clemens 67 🔵 C+ · · 23 0.239 92.5 11.1% 23.1% vs LHP 390 14.3% 27.3% 34.5% 37
3 Royce Lewis Royce Lewis 52 🟠 C · · 73 0.126 88.4 10.6% 14.3% vs LHP 397 17.2% 33.3% 12.4% 20
4 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 75 0.176 87.6 6.7% 19.1% vs LHP 371 16.1% 33.3% 17.8% 41
5 Ryan Kreidler Ryan Kreidler 46 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 105 0.194 86.5 7.6% 18.8% 413 8.3% 0.0% 11.6% 14
6 Austin Martin Austin Martin 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 200 0.080 86.7 4.8% 5.9% vs LHP 392 2.3% 0.0% 6.5% 28
7 Orlando Arcia Orlando Arcia 26 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 201 0.073 86.9 4.8% 9.1% 374 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 23
8 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 203 0.076 84.4 4.8% 0.0% vs LHP 367 1.8% 0.0% 5.7% 32
9 Alex Jackson Alex Jackson 18 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 223 0.063 89.4 · 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 13
Connor Prielipp
Connor Prielipp LHP
0.82 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.38 ·
7 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 65 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 28 0.264 94.3 11.0% 46.2% vs LHP 405 20.0% 16.7% 21.6% 38
2 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 58 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 43 0.195 91.7 10.3% 5.3% vs LHP 406 18.5% 41.7% 15.2% 42
3 Nathan Church Nathan Church 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 146 0.146 85.9 9.0% 0.0% vs LHP 387 7.9% 0.0% 6.0% 9
4 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 155 0.156 89.6 7.7% 30.8% vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 38
5 Pedro Pages Pedro Pages 33 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 178 0.130 86.6 7.7% 0.0% vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 4
6 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 28 ⚪ D · · 194 0.085 87.0 5.6% 0.0% vs LHP 379 3.2% 9.1% 6.2% 34
7 José Fermín José Fermín 25 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 210 0.115 86.0 3.6% 12.5% vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 20
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.