⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
SEA
@ 7:40p
KC
Kauffman Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cool air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.634
Temp
62.6°F
Wind
10.4 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Luke Raley Luke Raley 86 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 4 0.321 93.0 22.4% 45.5% 382 18.2% 23.1% 43.0% 20
2 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 50 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 79 0.209 93.0 14.1% 18.2% 402 5.4% 7.7% 16.3% 20
3 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 82 0.156 87.5 12.3% 8.3% 390 15.9% 0.0% 6.1% 15
4 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 48 ⚪ D · · 99 0.167 89.6 7.8% 46.7% 414 18.2% 23.1% 17.3% 41
5 J.P. Crawford 41 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 150 0.147 88.0 8.7% 26.3% 376 12.8% 15.4% 15.3% 33
6 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 40 ⚪ D +950 · 155 0.153 91.0 6.7% 28.6% 379 8.3% 15.4% 10.3% 34
7 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 34 ⚪ D · · 190 0.120 87.7 6.4% 0.0% 402 9.4% 7.7% 6.3% 45
8 Cole Young Cole Young 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 213 0.115 88.2 6.8% 23.1% 395 6.2% 0.0% 11.1% 34
9 Leo Rivas Leo Rivas 14 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 254 0.042 86.2 1.5% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 7
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Bobby Witt Jr. 61 🔵 C+ +850 🌤️ WARM 49 0.200 93.7 12.4% 16.7% 404 13.0% 27.3% 21.3% 39
2 Jac Caglianone Jac Caglianone 56 🟠 C · · 66 0.166 93.6 17.3% 19.1% 408 10.0% 11.1% 12.2% 25
3 Salvador Perez Salvador Perez 49 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 92 0.142 88.6 8.9% 20.0% 392 17.4% 27.3% 17.4% 32
4 Isaac Collins Isaac Collins 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 159 0.122 89.3 9.6% 11.8% 377 7.3% 0.0% 8.6% 27
5 Carter Jensen Carter Jensen 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 164 0.177 90.1 9.6% 20.7% 387 12.9% 0.0% 13.6% 22
6 Vinnie Pasquantino Vinnie Pasquantino 33 ⚪ D +950 ❄ COLD 195 0.150 88.9 8.7% 15.2% 398 11.4% 0.0% 10.5% 32
7 Maikel Garcia Maikel Garcia 28 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 216 0.144 90.2 4.9% 3.9% 398 6.8% 0.0% 7.2% 47
8 Kyle Isbel Kyle Isbel 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 223 0.129 87.4 4.2% 20.0% 390 7.3% 0.0% 9.6% 27
9 Lane Thomas Lane Thomas 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 252 0.053 85.3 3.1% 0.0% 407 8.7% 0.0% 6.3% 12
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.