PIT
@
1:15p
STL
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
+2.0%
mild air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
1.087
Temp
66.5°F
Wind
8.1 mph
out
Roof
open
Dustin May
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Brandon Lowe | 69 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌤️ WARM | 12 | 0.280 | 89.0 | 13.3% | 26.5% | 401 | 13.2% | 18.2% | 27.2% | 36 |
| 2 |
|
Oneil Cruz | 63 | 🔵 C+ | · | 🌧️ COOL | 18 | 0.220 | 96.0 | 17.6% | 30.4% | 410 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 29 |
| 3 |
|
Marcell Ozuna | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 60 | 0.114 | 89.1 | 8.7% | 12.0% | 408 | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 18 |
| 4 |
|
Bryan Reynolds | 33 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 84 | 0.138 | 91.0 | 8.0% | 11.8% | 415 | 9.5% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 41 |
| 5 |
|
Spencer Horwitz | 32 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 85 | 0.150 | 85.8 | 2.8% | 16.7% | 385 | 5.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 28 |
| 6 |
|
Konnor Griffin | 30 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 91 | 0.139 | 87.9 | 8.3% | 20.0% | 401 | 3.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 37 |
| 7 |
|
Henry Davis | 29 | ⚪ D | · | · | 93 | 0.105 | 90.3 | 7.9% | 23.1% | 400 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6% | 15 |
| 8 |
|
Jake Mangum | 9 | ⚪ D | · | · | 115 | 0.028 | 82.5 | · | 28.6% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 6 |
| 9 |
|
Jared Triolo | 8 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 116 | 0.049 | 85.3 | 2.3% | 0.0% | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 21 |
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jordan Walker | 66 | 🔵 C+ | · | ❄ COLD | 14 | 0.281 | 94.5 | 16.7% | 32.3% | 406 | 20.6% | 25.0% | 23.1% | 38 |
| 2 |
|
Alec Burleson | 45 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 45 | 0.175 | 91.5 | 11.3% | 18.2% | 408 | 15.9% | 18.2% | 12.4% | 37 |
| 3 |
|
Nolan Gorman | 41 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 53 | 0.135 | 89.5 | 10.3% | 15.2% | 409 | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 24 |
| 4 |
|
JJ Wetherholt | 39 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 62 | 0.177 | 89.9 | 7.9% | 21.9% | 394 | 10.3% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 33 |
| 5 |
|
Iván Herrera | 30 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 92 | 0.145 | 89.3 | 6.4% | 16.7% | 402 | 12.5% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 44 |
| 6 |
|
Pedro Pagés ⚡ | 28 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 99 | 0.132 | 86.2 | 6.5% | 22.2% | 403 | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 18 |
| 7 |
|
José Fermín | 22 | ⚪ D | · | · | 105 | 0.136 | 86.4 | · | 0.0% | 370 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 12 |
| 8 |
|
Masyn Winn | 19 | ⚪ D | · | · | 109 | 0.098 | 86.7 | 3.3% | 6.7% | 373 | 2.3% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 33 |
| 9 |
|
Victor Scott II | 10 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 114 | 0.077 | 87.2 | 1.1% | 11.1% | 406 | 2.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 21 |