PHI
@
6:45p
WSH
Stadium Conditions
Nationals Park
First pitch 6:45p
· roof open
Park 1.02×
Wind 4 mph in
63°F
open
-1
9 mph · cross
85°F
6:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
9 mph · cross
83°F
7:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+2
9 mph · cross
81°F
8:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
9 mph · cross
77°F
9:45p
Neutral for HR environment
+0
8 mph · cross
74°F
10:45p
Neutral for HR environment
⚪ Elevated · Combined 1.02
63°F, wind 4 mph SW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.
8 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Kyle Schwarber | 73 | 🟡 B | +210 | · | 2 | 0.344 | 93.2 | 12.8% | 46.3% vs RHP | 404 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 33.4% | 24 |
| 2 |
|
Bryce Harper | 59 | 🟠 C | +370 | 🌧️ COOL | 16 | 0.246 | 90.4 | 9.7% | 40.0% vs RHP | 401 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 34 |
| 3 |
|
Brandon Marsh | 49 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌤️ WARM | 42 | 0.184 | 90.1 | 8.1% | 21.6% vs RHP | 392 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 33 |
| 4 |
|
Bryson Stott | 40 | ⚪ D | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 72 | 0.161 | 89.3 | 7.4% | 9.8% vs RHP | 393 | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 36 |
| 5 |
|
Alec Bohm ⚡ | 35 | ⚪ D | +750 | 🌤️ WARM | 92 | 0.134 | 89.7 | 5.7% | 17.2% vs RHP | 385 | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 39 |
| 6 |
|
J.T. Realmuto | 29 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌤️ WARM | 110 | 0.118 | · | 6.1% | 21.7% vs RHP | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 25 |
| 7 |
|
Trea Turner | 29 | ⚪ D | +700 | 🌧️ COOL | 111 | 0.102 | 88.8 | 5.9% | 13.6% vs RHP | 394 | 9.5% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 32 |
| 8 |
|
Justin Crawford | 23 | ⚪ D | · | ❄ COLD | 122 | 0.102 | 86.9 | 3.0% | 7.4% vs RHP | 382 | 3.7% | 0.0% | 6.9% | 20 |
7 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
James Wood | 65 | 🔵 C+ | +525 | · | 7 | 0.248 | 95.8 | 14.5% | 29.4% vs LHP | 408 | 25.8% | 16.7% | 20.2% | 33 |
| 2 |
|
Curtis Mead | 58 | 🟠 C | +625 | 🌧️ COOL | 20 | 0.229 | 88.6 | 9.8% | 20.0% vs LHP | 399 | 22.0% | 30.0% | 25.5% | 26 |
| 3 |
|
Cj Abrams | 53 | 🟠 C | +750 | 🌧️ COOL | 31 | 0.236 | 90.1 | 9.5% | 17.6% vs LHP | 389 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 23.6% | 34 |
| 4 |
|
Keibert Ruiz | 44 | ⚪ D | +850 | 🌧️ COOL | 60 | 0.193 | 89.3 | 7.0% | 20.0% vs LHP | 378 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 25 |
| 5 |
|
Daylen Lile | 36 | ⚪ D | +950 | ❄ COLD | 87 | 0.155 | 87.5 | 7.9% | 0.0% vs LHP | 403 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 34 |
| 6 |
|
Jacob Young | 35 | ⚪ D | · | · | 93 | 0.145 | 89.2 | 7.4% | 5.9% vs LHP | 391 | 9.3% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 21 |
| 7 |
|
Nasim Nunez | 9 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 130 | 0.043 | 84.6 | · | 0.0% vs LHP | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 25 |