⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Freddie Freeman 4 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 8 Wenceel Pérez 4 HRs · 9 Hunter Goodman 4 HRs · 10 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 11 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 12 James Wood 4 HRs
NYY
@
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.91×
Weather Mod
-3.0%
cold air · light wind in · retractable roof
Combined
0.637
Temp
44.2°F
Wind
4 mph
in
Roof
retractable
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Aaron Judge Aaron Judge 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 3 0.357 95.4 14.5% 29.4% 408 50.0% 50.0% 17.6% 9
2 Ben Rice Ben Rice 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 103 0.244 93.3 11.4% 17.1% 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 17
3 Trent Grisham Trent Grisham 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 113 0.229 91.1 11.0% 21.5% 389 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 17
4 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 114 0.238 89.0 11.3% 20.7% 387 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 17
5 Austin Wells Austin Wells 43 ⚪ D · · 135 0.217 90.6 9.3% 14.0% 380 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 13
6 Jasson Dominguez Jasson Dominguez 41 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 154 0.131 90.6 7.7% 9.7% 391 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 13
7 Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger 40 ⚪ D · · 163 0.207 88.3 8.0% 11.9% 386 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 21
8 Anthony Volpe Anthony Volpe 36 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 192 0.180 89.3 9.4% 11.0% 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 24
9 Paul Goldschmidt Paul Goldschmidt 32 ⚪ D · · 210 0.129 90.4 8.2% 6.5% 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 13
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 56 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 43 0.342 91.3 12.7% 25.3% 392 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 11
2 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 54 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 57 0.181 92.3 10.9% 17.7% 412 16.7% 16.7% 13.0% 19
3 Cole Young Cole Young 44 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 132 0.094 87.6 6.8% 5.2% 402 16.7% 16.7% 7.1% 19
4 Jorge Polanco Jorge Polanco 42 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 143 0.229 90.8 9.2% 14.9% 382 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 19
5 Julio Rodriguez Julio Rodriguez 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 159 0.207 91.8 9.0% 18.5% 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14
6 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 170 0.188 91.3 9.7% 15.6% 399 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 21
7 Mitch Garver Mitch Garver 34 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 200 0.134 91.5 8.1% 10.8% 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 7
8 J.P. Crawford 27 ⚪ D · · 222 0.105 87.2 6.3% 8.5% 381 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0
9 Ben Williamson Ben Williamson 17 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 242 0.058 88.3 5.2% 1.8% 398 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 18
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.88

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.