⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
MIN
@ 7:10p
TB
Tropicana Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.01×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
1.006
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 27 0.270 91.6 12.0% 40.0% 407 28.6% 36.4% 35.2% 45
2 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 62 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 59 0.247 92.3 12.1% 25.0% 396 15.0% 10.0% 30.6% 23
3 Jonny DeLuca Jonny DeLuca 41 ⚪ D · · 144 0.185 88.7 6.7% 22.2% 416 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 23
4 Yandy Díaz Yandy Díaz 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 178 0.143 89.6 4.8% 20.0% 368 8.3% 10.0% 9.6% 40
5 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 33 ⚪ D · · 186 0.125 88.3 3.2% 9.1% 385 9.1% 11.1% 7.5% 30
6 Nick Fortes Nick Fortes 23 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 229 0.123 88.6 1.8% 12.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 24
7 Ben Williamson Ben Williamson 17 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 240 0.061 86.2 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 18
8 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 242 0.041 83.2 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 48
9 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 12 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 245 0.020 82.5 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 28
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 74 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 33 0.208 88.3 15.7% 19.2% 408 18.2% 40.0% 28.3% 35
2 Tristan Gray Tristan Gray 70 🟡 B · · 44 0.222 88.8 13.3% 50.0% 390 25.0% 33.3% 33.8% 16
3 Royce Lewis Royce Lewis 61 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 64 0.230 89.8 12.9% 33.3% 382 11.8% 0.0% 24.7% 7
4 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 52 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 97 0.175 89.6 4.8% 25.0% 371 14.3% 30.0% 23.6% 38
5 Kody Clemens Kody Clemens 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 106 0.151 92.0 17.1% 15.4% 404 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 22
6 Matt Wallner Matt Wallner 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 150 0.134 89.7 8.7% 33.3% 413 15.0% 0.0% 11.5% 18
7 Trevor Larnach Trevor Larnach 39 ⚪ D · · 154 0.118 87.2 7.7% 12.5% 398 5.3% 14.3% 9.5% 23
8 Austin Martin Austin Martin 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 172 0.135 85.8 4.8% 12.5% 406 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 19
9 Victor Caratini Victor Caratini 28 ⚪ D · · 213 0.059 88.1 4.9% 9.1% 423 4.8% 11.1% 9.0% 25
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.83

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.