⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
MIL
@ 4:10p
MIA
loanDepot Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.95×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.948
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jake Bauers Jake Bauers 73 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 29 0.271 93.7 15.4% 41.7% 395 50.0% 50.0% 28.7% 29
2 Brice Turang Brice Turang 57 🟠 C · · 69 0.250 93.5 10.3% 23.1% 401 11.1% 8.3% 21.1% 28
3 Garrett Mitchell Garrett Mitchell 51 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 89 0.155 96.8 19.0% 25.0% 420 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 15
4 William Contreras William Contreras 34 ⚪ D · · 184 0.162 91.8 4.3% 16.7% 397 5.6% 0.0% 9.0% 40
5 Christian Yelich Christian Yelich 30 ⚪ D · · 201 0.137 89.4 5.4% 20.0% 421 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 23
6 Luis Rengifo Luis Rengifo 29 ⚪ D · · 207 0.096 85.6 7.9% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 32
7 Sal Frelick Sal Frelick 15 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 255 0.081 85.7 2.4% 10.0% 407 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% 34
8 Joey Ortiz Joey Ortiz 9 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 268 0.000 85.4 5.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 24
9 David Hamilton David Hamilton 9 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 269 0.000 84.2 3.6% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 25
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 64 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 50 0.236 93.0 13.2% 17.6% 385 11.1% 8.3% 15.0% 38
2 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 54 0.189 92.8 22.2% 20.0% 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 13
3 Connor Norby Connor Norby 52 🟠 C · · 86 0.187 87.4 10.5% 11.8% 376 11.1% 16.7% 14.3% 29
4 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 46 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 117 0.233 88.8 6.1% 28.6% 367 25.0% 9.1% 15.6% 38
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 168 0.146 89.8 3.4% 6.7% 377 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 43
6 Agustín Ramírez Agustín Ramírez 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 180 0.131 88.5 6.1% 11.1% 418 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 38
7 Graham Pauley Graham Pauley 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 229 0.130 81.7 3.4% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 23
8 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 235 0.065 88.3 2.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 39
9 Heriberto Hernández 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 241 0.042 90.4 6.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 23
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.85

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.