⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
LAD
@ 2:15p
STL
Busch Stadium · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.05×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind in · roof open
Combined
0.841
Temp
54.2°F
Wind
3 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Jordan Walker Jordan Walker 49 ⚪ D · · 25 0.253 95.8 · 60.0% 406 22.2% 18.2% 21.1% 32
2 Nathan Church Nathan Church 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 39 0.200 86.7 · 31.2% 387 18.8% 25.0% 17.1% 38
3 JJ Wetherholt JJ Wetherholt 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 58 0.203 90.0 · 13.3% 394 7.1% 8.3% 14.1% 41
4 Pedro Pagés Pedro Pagés 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 61 0.183 85.0 · 20.0% 397 10.0% 0.0% 13.8% 21
5 Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera 36 ⚪ D · · 83 0.181 90.6 · 33.3% 400 10.0% 14.3% 11.5% 34
6 Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.176 91.7 · 10.0% 414 17.2% 18.2% 7.4% 37
7 Nolan Gorman Nolan Gorman 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 100 0.143 87.9 · 16.0% 403 10.7% 8.3% 6.9% 36
8 Victor Scott II Victor Scott II 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 180 0.053 87.5 · 14.3% 415 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 22
9 Masyn Winn Masyn Winn 21 ⚪ D · · 185 0.107 86.2 · 0.0% 373 3.6% 0.0% 4.2% 38
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Shohei Ohtani Shohei Ohtani 42 ⚪ D · · 47 0.218 94.3 · 12.5% 400 10.0% 7.7% 14.9% 31
2 Max Muncy Max Muncy 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 94 0.163 92.6 · 25.8% 409 20.8% 17.4% 16.3% 49
3 Teoscar Hernández Teoscar Hernández 32 ⚪ D · · 107 0.163 90.5 · 31.6% 387 5.6% 0.0% 13.7% 29
4 Andy Pages Andy Pages 32 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 108 0.197 90.4 · 20.0% 392 13.3% 0.0% 14.5% 38
5 Freddie Freeman Freddie Freeman 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 127 0.155 92.2 · 7.1% 412 6.9% 0.0% 9.2% 38
6 Will Smith Will Smith 29 ⚪ D · · 128 0.112 88.8 · 12.5% 406 10.3% 8.3% 8.5% 28
7 Kyle Tucker Kyle Tucker 27 ⚪ D · · 143 0.130 88.9 · 8.7% 404 3.4% 0.0% 8.2% 36
8 Alex Freeland Alex Freeland 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 202 0.091 89.3 · 7.7% 413 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 21
9 Hyeseong Kim Hyeseong Kim 15 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 222 0.093 85.3 · 11.1% 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 31
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.