2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
LAA
@ 10:05p
ATH
Sutter Health Park · 14 ranked batters
Stadium Conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 10:05p · roof unknown
Park 1.21× Wind unknown unknown
Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.
⚪ Boost · Combined 1.21

Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

Walbert Ureña RHP
0.71 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP -0.28 ·
8 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Nick Kurtz Nick Kurtz 77 🟡 B +245 · 6 0.255 94.2 9.9% 43.3% vs RHP 409 22.5% 38.5% 37.6% 32
2 Shea Langeliers Shea Langeliers 72 🟡 B +265 · 12 0.261 91.5 9.1% 22.6% vs RHP 416 22.1% 25.0% 28.7% 42
3 Tyler Soderstrom Tyler Soderstrom 68 🔵 C+ +400 · 20 0.244 89.9 7.8% 18.2% vs RHP 403 15.7% 30.8% 29.3% 36
4 Zack Gelof Zack Gelof 66 🔵 C+ · · 24 0.222 89.1 6.4% 26.7% vs RHP 392 25.0% 38.5% 31.7% 37
5 Carlos Cortes Carlos Cortes 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 98 0.159 89.7 6.8% 16.7% vs RHP 404 5.7% 8.3% 11.1% 27
6 Lawrence Butler Lawrence Butler 44 ⚪ D +500 🌤️ WARM 119 0.110 88.9 6.2% 26.1% vs RHP 402 4.9% 18.2% 15.9% 26
7 Jacob Wilson Jacob Wilson 36 ⚪ D +950 🌤️ WARM 163 0.095 84.3 3.2% 12.0% vs RHP 375 5.6% 16.7% 9.3% 24
8 Jeff Mcneil Jeff Mcneil 33 ⚪ D +750 ❄ COLD 180 0.081 86.0 2.5% 10.0% vs RHP 373 7.7% 11.1% 8.3% 22
J.T. Ginn RHP
1.03 HR/9 · FIP-xFIP +0.16 ·
6 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate for this matchup. A vs LHP/vs RHP chip means a handedness split is shown; otherwise the value is overall. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Zach Neto Zach Neto 70 🟡 B +350 🌤️ WARM 15 0.216 89.9 9.3% 23.5% vs RHP 403 19.7% 46.2% 29.8% 29
2 Vaughn Grissom Vaughn Grissom 48 ⚪ D +625 ❄ COLD 95 0.156 90.2 6.7% 18.2% vs RHP 396 11.1% 0.0% 15.0% 7
3 Logan O'Hoppe Logan O'Hoppe 48 ⚪ D · · 96 0.112 87.3 8.6% 16.7% vs RHP 408 4.9% 22.2% 14.8% 27
4 Oswald Peraza Oswald Peraza 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 99 0.157 87.7 7.5% 11.1% vs RHP 386 9.3% 0.0% 10.9% 28
5 Jo Adell Jo Adell 47 ⚪ D +370 🌧️ COOL 102 0.136 90.3 7.3% 10.8% vs RHP 415 11.3% 7.7% 9.4% 42
6 Nolan Schanuel Nolan Schanuel 39 ⚪ D +750 🌧️ COOL 154 0.110 87.3 4.2% 12.5% vs RHP 369 8.5% 9.1% 9.9% 21
🏟️
Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.