⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
KC
@ 9:45p
SEA
T-Mobile Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.01×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light wind out · retractable roof
Combined
0.811
Temp
51.4°F
Wind
3.4 mph
out
Roof
retractable
Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans LHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh 54 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 15 0.200 86.9 · 11.1% 390 24.1% 41.7% 20.7% 37
2 Luke Raley Luke Raley 52 🟠 C · · 19 0.244 93.0 · 33.3% 392 14.3% 8.3% 35.3% 14
3 Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 27 0.238 95.5 · 16.7% 409 5.3% 0.0% 22.5% 18
4 Josh Naylor Josh Naylor 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 69 0.124 87.4 · 19.1% 402 15.4% 18.2% 14.5% 32
5 Cole Young Cole Young 38 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 79 0.134 88.4 · 42.9% 395 10.3% 8.3% 15.6% 37
6 Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena 34 ⚪ D · · 106 0.150 90.1 · 11.1% 387 3.4% 8.3% 9.3% 30
7 J.P. Crawford 33 ⚪ D · · 119 0.113 89.6 · 15.4% 372 7.1% 16.7% 11.2% 39
8 Julio Rodríguez Julio Rodríguez 29 ⚪ D · · 143 0.095 88.2 · 33.3% 414 7.1% 8.3% 10.9% 43
9 Leo Rivas Leo Rivas 26 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 162 0.040 86.4 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 25
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Carter Jensen Carter Jensen 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 23 0.233 91.0 · 33.3% 387 28.6% 20.0% 26.6% 24
2 Jac Caglianone Jac Caglianone 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 94 0.150 95.2 · 9.1% 423 4.2% 14.3% 12.6% 17
3 Lane Thomas Lane Thomas 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 100 0.070 85.8 · 0.0% 407 25.0% 33.3% 5.8% 24
4 Vinnie Pasquantino Vinnie Pasquantino 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 127 0.157 88.2 · 14.3% 391 11.5% 22.2% 12.1% 28
5 Kyle Isbel Kyle Isbel 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 134 0.166 88.0 · 27.3% 390 12.5% 14.3% 10.0% 21
6 Salvador Perez Salvador Perez 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 136 0.155 87.3 · 22.2% 396 17.9% 9.1% 10.3% 39
7 Bobby Witt Jr. 29 ⚪ D · · 142 0.144 92.6 · 5.3% 408 3.6% 9.1% 6.7% 43
8 Maikel Garcia Maikel Garcia 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 181 0.130 90.3 · 5.9% 398 11.5% 11.1% 6.3% 29
9 Isaac Collins Isaac Collins 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 199 0.094 88.6 · 8.3% 375 8.3% 9.1% 6.4% 24
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.