HOU
@
7:10p
BOS
Park Factor
0.82×
Weather Mod
+4.0%
cold air · strong wind out · roof open
Combined
1.154
Temp
53.4°F
Wind
18.4 mph
out
Roof
open
Mike Burrows
RHP
9 batters
| # | Batter | Score | Tier | Odds | Form | Rank | ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. | EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. | Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. | HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. | HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. | Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. | 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. | Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. | BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Willson Contreras | 47 | ⚪ D | · | · | 37 | 0.224 | 92.7 | · | 30.8% | 403 | 23.1% | 33.3% | 23.2% | 34 |
| 2 |
|
Wilyer Abreu | 34 | ⚪ D | · | · | 114 | 0.175 | 90.0 | · | 18.5% | 380 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 41 |
| 3 |
|
Carlos Narváez | 29 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 145 | 0.125 | 92.4 | · | 16.7% | 386 | 20.0% | 22.2% | 11.2% | 18 |
| 4 |
|
Caleb Durbin | 26 | ⚪ D | · | 🌤️ WARM | 172 | 0.091 | 85.9 | · | 12.5% | 386 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 37 |
| 5 |
|
Ceddanne Rafaela | 21 | ⚪ D | · | · | 203 | 0.116 | 89.3 | · | 18.2% | 337 | 4.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 31 |
| 6 |
|
Trevor Story | 18 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 220 | 0.098 | 89.6 | · | 12.5% | 407 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 29 |
| 7 |
|
Jarren Duran | 17 | ⚪ D | · | · | 228 | 0.080 | 90.1 | · | 12.5% | 424 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 31 |
| 8 |
|
Marcelo Mayer | 17 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 229 | 0.120 | 87.6 | · | 0.0% | 385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 26 |
| 9 |
|
Roman Anthony | 16 | ⚪ D | · | 🌧️ COOL | 232 | 0.084 | 92.3 | · | 7.1% | 391 | 4.3% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 19 |