⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Christian Walker 5 HRs · 2 Casey Schmitt 5 HRs · 3 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 6 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 9 Munetaka Murakami 4 HRs · 10 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
DET
@ 2:10p
CWS
Rate Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.07×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
Unknown stadium
Combined
1.072
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Drew Romo Drew Romo 72 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 18 0.291 84.6 9.6% 36.4% 368 12.5% 20.0% 29.2% 14
2 Miguel Vargas Miguel Vargas 71 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 22 0.240 90.1 11.9% 11.9% 393 24.4% 16.7% 17.6% 33
3 Colson Montgomery Colson Montgomery 64 🔵 C+ · · 44 0.226 90.2 11.7% 28.1% 396 27.5% 7.7% 17.3% 32
4 Chase Meidroth Chase Meidroth 44 ⚪ D · · 133 0.130 87.9 7.7% 16.7% 384 7.1% 15.4% 8.4% 41
5 Andrew Benintendi Andrew Benintendi 42 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 153 0.130 88.8 9.9% 8.1% 389 11.4% 10.0% 7.8% 29
6 Tristan Peters Tristan Peters 38 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 174 0.122 87.1 6.6% 7.7% 363 5.7% 18.2% 9.4% 33
7 Sam Antonacci Sam Antonacci 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 202 0.097 87.6 8.3% 5.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 34
8 Jacob Gonzalez Jacob Gonzalez 22 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 253 0.050 86.1 4.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 40
9 Rikuu Nishida Rikuu Nishida 14 ⚪ D · · 264 · 88.3 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.181 90.5 9.9% 18.9% 397 14.3% 16.7% 16.9% 29
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 47 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 117 0.215 92.0 8.7% 24.0% 382 11.9% 0.0% 14.5% 23
3 Wenceel Pérez Wenceel Pérez 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 125 0.159 87.4 7.0% 19.1% 382 15.8% 23.1% 17.1% 34
4 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 41 ⚪ D · · 160 0.143 86.9 6.3% 13.0% 370 9.7% 8.3% 8.8% 32
5 Riley Greene Riley Greene 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 170 0.136 90.7 9.1% 8.8% 409 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% 30
6 Kevin McGonigle Kevin McGonigle 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 188 0.122 88.1 7.9% 4.2% 402 2.5% 7.7% 6.7% 40
7 Jake Rogers Jake Rogers 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 212 0.077 86.6 8.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 4
8 Colt Keith Colt Keith 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 250 0.067 89.1 5.8% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 29
9 Zach McKinstry Zach McKinstry 19 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 259 0.052 84.2 2.9% 4.3% 399 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% 29
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.69

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.