⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
DET
@ 4:10p
BOS
Fenway Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.82×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cool air · light wind in · roof open
Combined
0.659
Temp
55.9°F
Wind
7.4 mph
in
Roof
open
Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 71 🟡 B · · 38 0.268 92.8 15.8% 33.3% 413 16.7% 16.7% 21.1% 30
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 62 🔵 C+ · · 58 0.193 93.3 14.3% 20.0% 382 16.7% 25.0% 18.6% 19
3 Riley Greene Riley Greene 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 110 0.126 89.0 12.8% 5.9% 408 5.3% 7.7% 6.0% 29
4 Kevin McGonigle Kevin McGonigle 42 ⚪ D · · 138 0.180 88.1 9.4% 4.3% 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0
5 Javier Báez Javier Báez 37 ⚪ D · · 171 0.140 86.7 3.0% 16.7% 354 20.0% 20.0% 7.5% 28
6 Colt Keith Colt Keith 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 190 0.116 93.9 9.8% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 29
7 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 198 0.051 89.8 9.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 26
8 Zach McKinstry Zach McKinstry 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 200 0.117 85.9 3.1% 12.5% 399 5.9% 9.1% 6.8% 24
9 Gleyber Torres Gleyber Torres 28 ⚪ D · · 216 0.071 83.9 6.4% 5.9% 364 5.3% 7.7% 6.0% 40
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 54 🟠 C · · 80 0.184 91.1 15.8% 30.0% 399 13.3% 20.0% 15.0% 24
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 101 0.215 91.0 13.7% 17.6% 372 20.0% 0.0% 9.5% 31
3 Roman Anthony Roman Anthony 34 ⚪ D · · 185 0.116 92.1 11.9% 7.7% 391 6.7% 0.0% 5.1% 34
4 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 31 ⚪ D · · 199 0.094 90.4 12.8% 16.7% 424 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 28
5 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 27 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 219 0.118 89.4 12.5% 8.3% 385 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 28
6 Trevor Story Trevor Story 26 ⚪ D · · 222 0.123 88.2 3.9% 15.4% 402 12.5% 10.0% 5.6% 38
7 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 20 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 243 0.075 88.7 7.9% 16.7% 337 6.7% 0.0% 5.6% 25
8 Carlos Narváez Carlos Narváez 16 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 251 0.000 93.2 7.1% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 19
9 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 10 ⚪ D · · 267 0.052 85.0 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 33
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