⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
DET
@ 7:15p
BOS
Fenway Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.82×
Weather Mod
-1.0%
mild air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.742
Temp
65.2°F
Wind
9.5 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 72 🟡 B · · 32 0.283 92.8 15.8% 33.3% 413 17.6% 18.2% 28.1% 32
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 60 🔵 C+ · · 60 0.193 93.3 14.3% 20.0% 382 17.6% 27.3% 19.8% 21
3 Riley Greene Riley Greene 47 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 103 0.129 89.0 12.8% 6.2% 408 5.6% 8.3% 6.5% 32
4 Kevin McGonigle Kevin McGonigle 41 ⚪ D · · 125 0.191 88.1 9.4% 4.5% 408 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0
5 Javier Báez Javier Báez 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 133 0.149 86.7 3.0% 16.7% 354 25.0% 25.0% 8.5% 28
6 Colt Keith Colt Keith 31 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 182 0.116 93.9 9.8% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 29
7 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 190 0.055 89.8 9.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 24
8 Zach McKinstry Zach McKinstry 26 ⚪ D · · 207 0.117 85.9 3.1% 12.5% 399 6.2% 10.0% 7.2% 28
9 Gleyber Torres Gleyber Torres 25 ⚪ D · · 214 0.074 83.9 6.4% 5.9% 364 5.6% 8.3% 6.4% 40
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 57 0.193 91.1 15.8% 37.5% 399 14.3% 22.2% 19.9% 24
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 55 🟠 C · · 75 0.228 91.0 13.7% 20.0% 372 21.4% 0.0% 12.7% 31
3 Roman Anthony Roman Anthony 37 ⚪ D · · 140 0.123 92.1 11.9% 9.1% 391 7.1% 0.0% 6.3% 34
4 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 33 ⚪ D · · 170 0.100 90.4 12.8% 16.7% 424 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 29
5 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 32 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 175 0.125 89.4 12.5% 9.1% 385 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 28
6 Trevor Story Trevor Story 29 ⚪ D · · 195 0.130 88.2 3.9% 15.4% 402 13.3% 11.1% 6.9% 39
7 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 26 ⚪ D · · 206 0.080 88.7 7.9% 16.7% 337 7.1% 0.0% 6.8% 25
8 Connor Wong Connor Wong 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 208 0.200 89.4 0.0% 12.5% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 9
9 Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 8 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 259 0.037 85.0 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 33
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