⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
DET
@ 7:15p
BAL
Camden Yards · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.10×
Weather Mod
-4.0%
cool air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.659
Temp
60.8°F
Wind
11.5 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Adley Rutschman Adley Rutschman 79 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 13 0.262 88.9 9.7% 22.2% 399 20.0% 33.3% 34.7% 34
2 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 69 🔵 C+ +850 · 24 0.206 94.9 13.0% 23.3% 391 16.3% 16.7% 19.7% 36
3 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 68 🔵 C+ · · 26 0.202 92.7 11.2% 28.6% 404 15.2% 18.2% 30.6% 22
4 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 61 🔵 C+ +900 · 48 0.196 89.8 9.5% 16.7% 389 19.1% 8.3% 15.2% 41
5 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 60 🔵 C+ · 🔥 HOT 51 0.147 90.9 8.2% 12.5% 417 11.4% 18.2% 17.2% 19
6 Jeremiah Jackson Jeremiah Jackson 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 68 0.162 89.1 8.4% 23.1% 396 11.4% 0.0% 13.4% 26
7 Dylan Beavers Dylan Beavers 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 152 0.126 87.4 5.2% 14.3% 406 3.4% 0.0% 12.0% 5
8 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 36 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 178 0.112 89.0 4.6% 4.2% 390 4.0% 8.3% 7.3% 26
9 Leody Taveras Leody Taveras 32 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 199 0.128 87.0 4.7% 15.8% 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 20
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Dillon Dingler Dillon Dingler 74 🟡 B · · 21 0.241 90.4 13.6% 31.0% 401 17.4% 23.1% 23.6% 35
2 Kerry Carpenter Kerry Carpenter 64 🔵 C+ · ❄ COLD 35 0.235 92.0 10.9% 24.0% 382 12.2% 0.0% 23.5% 2
3 Spencer Torkelson Spencer Torkelson 56 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 67 0.183 90.5 13.6% 18.8% 400 14.3% 7.7% 8.9% 27
4 Riley Greene Riley Greene 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 74 0.159 90.7 13.0% 10.3% 409 6.1% 0.0% 10.1% 32
5 Matt Vierling Matt Vierling 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 84 0.150 87.5 5.8% 14.3% 370 12.5% 16.7% 7.7% 35
6 Kevin McGonigle Kevin McGonigle 42 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 132 0.140 88.5 9.7% 4.3% 407 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 37
7 Gleyber Torres Gleyber Torres 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 174 0.069 83.0 6.3% 9.5% 376 4.7% 0.0% 5.3% 26
8 Wenceel Pérez Wenceel Pérez 29 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 211 0.089 87.1 6.7% 17.6% 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 32
9 Colt Keith Colt Keith 24 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 230 0.066 89.3 4.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 24
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.