⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
COL
@ 12:40p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.26×
Weather Mod
-6.0%
cold air · steady wind in · roof open
Combined
0.504
Temp
44.6°F
Wind
13.8 mph
in
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 93 🔥 A+ · 🔥 HOT 3 0.318 93.2 13.2% 40.0% 402 25.0% 33.3% 46.3% 27
2 Mickey Moniak Mickey Moniak 85 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 8 0.345 90.4 12.5% 32.0% 416 20.0% 14.3% 45.0% 34
3 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 51 🟠 C · · 63 0.141 90.2 8.7% 18.2% 375 7.7% 7.7% 12.4% 28
4 TJ Rumfield 49 ⚪ D · · 75 0.154 86.4 9.0% 13.6% 417 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 33
5 Willi Castro Willi Castro 44 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.110 88.0 7.1% 7.1% 436 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 13
6 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 90 0.068 90.2 6.8% 9.1% 448 5.9% 7.1% 9.7% 32
7 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 40 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 100 0.097 88.3 8.8% 4.8% 401 3.8% 0.0% 8.6% 30
8 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 110 0.142 89.8 3.1% 13.3% 415 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 34
9 Brenton Doyle Brenton Doyle 35 ⚪ D · · 121 0.073 90.3 4.4% 8.3% 408 4.2% 0.0% 9.6% 21
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 86 🟢 A · · 6 0.292 95.8 15.1% 27.8% 394 23.1% 20.0% 50.2% 35
2 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 86 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 7 0.306 91.7 10.7% 44.4% 417 50.0% 66.7% 51.6% 26
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 83 🟢 A · 🌧️ COOL 9 0.298 91.3 23.7% 25.9% 394 7.7% 10.0% 23.8% 39
4 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 77 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 16 0.213 89.5 17.9% 10.0% 393 11.5% 10.0% 23.4% 26
5 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 51 🟠 C · 🔥 HOT 62 0.078 90.1 7.3% 0.0% 363 9.1% 10.0% 7.1% 25
6 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 74 0.116 95.5 12.8% 14.3% 379 4.3% 0.0% 10.1% 19
7 Matt McLain Matt McLain 48 ⚪ D · · 78 0.109 87.8 10.3% 4.5% 420 3.8% 10.0% 10.9% 30
8 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 40 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 101 0.132 84.8 8.2% 18.2% 397 9.1% 0.0% 10.6% 18
9 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 37 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 111 0.068 86.5 1.5% 5.6% · 4.0% 11.1% 11.0% 33
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.