⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 5 HRs · 6 JJ Bleday 4 HRs · 7 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 8 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 9 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 10 James Wood 4 HRs · 11 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 12 Ketel Marte 4 HRs
CIN
@ 8:10p
MIN
Target Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.90×
Weather Mod
+5.0%
cool air · strong wind out · roof open
Combined
1.344
Temp
60.5°F
Wind
15.0 mph
out
Roof
open
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 69 🔵 C+ · · 38 0.280 94.7 15.2% 40.0% 377 23.5% 18.2% 25.4% 34
2 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 66 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 45 0.379 93.4 21.3% 36.8% 391 0.0% 0.0% 25.5% 36
3 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 59 🟠 C · · 61 0.200 87.6 17.9% 17.6% 394 11.8% 18.2% 16.7% 30
4 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 106 0.150 94.9 12.0% 15.4% 379 6.7% 11.1% 12.0% 17
5 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 37 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 142 0.152 85.6 10.3% 27.3% 421 25.0% 0.0% 8.1% 32
6 Will Benson Will Benson 22 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 228 0.107 89.4 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 11
7 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 19 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 235 0.000 91.3 5.3% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 28
8 Matt McLain Matt McLain 15 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 247 0.045 87.7 8.7% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 36
9 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 7 ⚪ D · · 261 0.000 84.1 0.0% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 34
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Byron Buxton Byron Buxton 67 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 43 0.206 89.8 14.9% 16.7% 420 12.5% 20.0% 20.8% 33
2 Royce Lewis Royce Lewis 61 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 55 0.222 92.9 12.5% 33.3% 378 13.3% 0.0% 14.3% 13
3 Ryan Jeffers Ryan Jeffers 56 🟠 C · ❄ COLD 71 0.178 92.7 15.6% 22.2% 403 13.3% 20.0% 17.1% 26
4 Josh Bell Josh Bell 52 🟠 C · · 83 0.222 89.6 11.4% 18.8% 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 36
5 Brooks Lee Brooks Lee 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 96 0.185 88.2 5.1% 27.3% 367 20.0% 30.0% 20.4% 35
6 Matt Wallner Matt Wallner 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 108 0.162 89.4 8.8% 33.3% 413 18.8% 10.0% 10.9% 22
7 Austin Martin Austin Martin 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 154 0.131 83.2 3.7% 14.3% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 22
8 Victor Caratini Victor Caratini 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 191 0.074 88.9 6.7% 14.3% 423 6.2% 11.1% 7.5% 31
9 Luke Keaschall Luke Keaschall 29 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 193 0.070 84.9 3.4% 6.2% 367 6.2% 10.0% 6.6% 41
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