⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
CIN
@ 7:40p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.06×
Weather Mod
-2.0%
cold air · light crosswind · roof open
Combined
0.850
Temp
53.1°F
Wind
3 mph
cross
Roof
open
Colin Rea
Colin Rea RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 65 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 3 0.306 91.1 · 46.2% 393 40.0% 44.4% 32.8% 33
2 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 51 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 27 0.292 93.8 · 21.7% 394 18.8% 9.1% 23.2% 30
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 45 0.298 90.6 · 25.0% 391 5.3% 9.1% 16.9% 37
4 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 39 ⚪ D · · 82 0.213 90.0 · 8.7% 396 9.4% 0.0% 10.9% 33
5 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 33 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 128 0.078 91.3 · 5.3% 365 12.5% 10.0% 6.2% 22
6 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 32 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 136 0.068 88.0 · 9.5% 364 6.5% 20.0% 8.9% 34
7 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 164 0.132 84.8 · 18.2% 397 6.2% 0.0% 10.0% 3
8 Matt McLain Matt McLain 27 ⚪ D · · 172 0.109 87.7 · 4.0% 420 3.1% 9.1% 8.3% 29
9 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 197 0.116 93.0 · 10.0% 379 3.4% 0.0% 7.0% 21
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 54 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 18 0.282 90.4 · 31.6% 390 14.3% 16.7% 36.7% 36
2 Ian Happ Ian Happ 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 33 0.230 88.9 · 31.6% 397 25.7% 15.4% 29.9% 29
3 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 45 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 53 0.225 90.4 · 14.3% 393 17.1% 7.7% 18.7% 36
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 41 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 71 0.121 91.8 · 10.0% 385 8.8% 16.7% 11.5% 31
5 Michael Busch Michael Busch 38 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 90 0.088 86.9 · 10.7% 408 8.6% 23.1% 15.0% 36
6 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 38 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 92 0.206 86.8 · 25.0% 357 13.3% 8.3% 19.4% 20
7 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 33 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 131 0.158 86.4 · 7.4% 383 11.4% 0.0% 11.1% 46
8 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 32 ⚪ D · · 137 0.113 89.8 · 21.7% 395 6.1% 7.7% 12.2% 41
9 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 26 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 182 0.133 91.5 · 0.0% 414 6.1% 0.0% 8.7% 24
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