⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
CIN
@ 7:40p
CHC
Wrigley Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.08×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · steady crosswind · roof open
Combined
1.080
Temp
64.4°F
Wind
10.4 mph
cross
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 65 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 2 0.306 91.3 · 41.7% 391 37.5% 42.9% 38.7% 28
2 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 59 🟠 C · · 6 0.292 94.4 · 22.7% 394 20.0% 20.0% 35.9% 32
3 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 51 🟠 C · · 15 0.298 91.3 · 25.0% 391 5.9% 10.0% 20.5% 40
4 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 34 0.213 90.3 · 9.1% 396 10.0% 10.0% 17.8% 30
5 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 33 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 90 0.068 87.8 · 10.0% 364 6.9% 22.2% 11.2% 33
6 Ke'Bryan Hayes Ke'Bryan Hayes 32 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 96 0.078 91.8 · 0.0% 363 7.1% 11.1% 6.4% 23
7 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 117 0.132 84.8 · 18.2% 397 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% 8
8 Matt McLain Matt McLain 27 ⚪ D · · 126 0.109 87.5 · 4.3% 420 3.3% 10.0% 8.8% 33
9 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 142 0.116 93.5 · 10.5% 379 3.7% 0.0% 8.4% 22
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 58 🟠 C · · 7 0.282 90.9 · 31.6% 390 15.4% 14.3% 32.0% 33
2 Ian Happ Ian Happ 50 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 19 0.230 89.3 · 31.6% 397 27.3% 15.4% 23.6% 32
3 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 48 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 25 0.225 90.5 · 16.7% 393 18.2% 15.4% 19.6% 32
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 43 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 38 0.121 91.7 · 11.1% 385 9.4% 16.7% 9.9% 32
5 Matt Shaw Matt Shaw 39 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 62 0.206 86.8 · 25.0% 357 14.3% 8.3% 15.3% 21
6 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 72 0.113 89.6 · 21.7% 395 6.5% 7.7% 9.7% 41
7 Michael Busch Michael Busch 36 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 73 0.088 86.2 · 8.0% 398 6.1% 15.4% 8.2% 36
8 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 35 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 79 0.158 86.4 · 7.4% 383 12.1% 7.7% 8.9% 45
9 Carson Kelly Carson Kelly 28 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 118 0.133 91.6 · 0.0% 414 6.5% 0.0% 7.0% 25
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.