⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
CHC
@ 6:40p
PIT
PNC Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.81×
Weather Mod
+6.0%
warm air · strong wind out · roof open
Combined
1.302
Temp
73.3°F
Wind
20.7 mph
out
Roof
open
Colin Rea
Colin Rea RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Brandon Lowe Brandon Lowe 68 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 8 0.272 90.0 12.6% 25.6% 396 15.9% 25.0% 23.0% 37
2 Oneil Cruz Oneil Cruz 54 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 21 0.202 96.4 13.7% 30.8% 410 21.3% 8.3% 11.8% 28
3 Spencer Horwitz Spencer Horwitz 53 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 24 0.191 86.0 8.2% 21.2% 383 9.3% 27.3% 17.1% 36
4 Henry Davis Henry Davis 49 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 31 0.158 90.5 10.3% 28.6% 397 8.7% 22.2% 16.4% 17
5 Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn 45 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 38 0.161 90.3 9.0% 19.4% 392 13.8% 20.0% 14.1% 8
6 Marcell Ozuna Marcell Ozuna 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 59 0.112 89.8 9.9% 12.0% 408 8.2% 9.1% 7.4% 18
7 Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds 36 ⚪ D · · 72 0.132 90.6 9.3% 11.1% 415 8.2% 0.0% 6.1% 42
8 Konnor Griffin Konnor Griffin 35 ⚪ D · · 74 0.116 87.4 9.9% 18.8% 393 5.7% 8.3% 7.2% 35
9 Nick Gonzales Nick Gonzales 15 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 106 0.053 85.9 4.8% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 34
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Ian Happ Ian Happ 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 35 0.220 89.9 8.9% 30.8% 397 22.6% 18.2% 19.3% 27
2 Michael Busch Michael Busch 42 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 47 0.165 88.7 8.0% 14.3% 398 10.9% 23.1% 13.5% 33
3 Miguel Amaya Miguel Amaya 41 ⚪ D · · 52 0.232 86.5 5.9% 31.2% 384 14.3% 0.0% 19.5% 16
4 Pete Crow-Armstrong Pete Crow-Armstrong 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 73 0.133 91.5 6.7% 12.9% 386 11.1% 15.4% 8.3% 31
5 Moisés Ballesteros Moisés Ballesteros 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 77 0.197 91.0 7.5% 23.1% 390 6.2% 0.0% 10.7% 12
6 Seiya Suzuki Seiya Suzuki 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 86 0.168 88.9 6.0% 24.0% 414 8.6% 0.0% 10.4% 33
7 Alex Bregman Alex Bregman 27 ⚪ D · · 91 0.141 88.9 5.3% 18.2% 390 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% 44
8 Dansby Swanson Dansby Swanson 26 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 93 0.145 89.7 6.3% 12.5% 398 13.0% 8.3% 7.8% 29
9 Nico Hoerner Nico Hoerner 13 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 107 0.116 85.0 2.7% 5.6% 383 7.4% 0.0% 6.3% 45
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.73

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.