⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
BOS
@ 1:35p
ATL
Truist Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.12×
Weather Mod
+4.0%
hot air · steady wind out · roof open
Combined
1.564
Temp
87.2°F
Wind
9.2 mph
out
Roof
open
Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello RHP 💥 Meltdown
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 95 🥇 S · 🌤️ WARM 1 0.344 93.3 17.7% 44.4% 413 27.9% 25.0% 60.6% 29
2 Drake Baldwin Drake Baldwin 90 🔥 A+ · 🌤️ WARM 4 0.225 92.6 17.9% 27.3% 402 27.9% 41.7% 44.2% 33
3 Michael Harris II 70 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 29 0.193 94.5 16.2% 27.3% 394 17.1% 8.3% 22.0% 30
4 Austin Riley Austin Riley 60 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 46 0.154 90.8 9.8% 16.1% 405 9.3% 16.7% 12.4% 31
5 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 57 🟠 C · · 58 0.185 90.0 9.2% 16.7% 398 8.3% 0.0% 18.2% 17
6 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 51 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 88 0.193 86.3 4.5% 17.9% 386 16.3% 8.3% 19.7% 38
7 Jorge Mateo Jorge Mateo 49 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 91 0.146 88.1 11.1% 16.7% 380 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 14
8 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 46 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 113 0.085 90.2 4.5% 14.3% 380 4.0% 10.0% 13.1% 19
9 José Azócar 39 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 155 0.141 83.4 3.8% 6.7% 365 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 8
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Willson Contreras Willson Contreras 73 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 23 0.201 90.9 16.5% 23.5% 411 19.5% 15.4% 29.6% 25
2 Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu 60 🔵 C+ · · 47 0.169 90.1 10.6% 15.4% 391 14.6% 15.4% 16.1% 33
3 Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela 52 🟠 C · 🌧️ COOL 82 0.149 86.8 8.3% 20.0% 364 10.0% 23.1% 21.7% 33
4 Jarren Duran Jarren Duran 47 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 109 0.122 89.5 8.8% 23.5% 397 7.3% 15.4% 13.2% 35
5 Mickey Gasper Mickey Gasper 43 ⚪ D · · 130 0.079 93.0 10.5% 18.2% · 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 19
6 Carlos Narváez Carlos Narváez 43 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 136 0.111 91.3 8.2% 11.8% 386 8.7% 0.0% 9.9% 14
7 Andruw Monasterio Andruw Monasterio 42 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 142 0.138 90.5 7.1% 0.0% 388 14.3% 0.0% 8.6% 20
8 Nick Sogard Nick Sogard 35 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 181 0.083 89.3 5.0% 0.0% 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 6
9 Marcelo Mayer Marcelo Mayer 34 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 185 0.081 87.3 7.4% 5.0% 382 3.6% 8.3% 8.2% 27
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.78

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.