⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 3 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 4 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 5 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 6 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 7 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 10 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4 HRs · 11 James Wood 4 HRs · 12 Michael Harris II 4 HRs
BAL
@ 1:10p
TB
Tropicana Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.95×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.947
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Adley Rutschman Adley Rutschman 72 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 21 0.262 89.0 10.0% 20.0% 399 21.1% 40.0% 26.5% 34
2 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 60 🔵 C+ · · 39 0.206 94.6 11.9% 20.7% 394 14.6% 15.4% 15.6% 39
3 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 54 🟠 C · · 63 0.202 92.5 10.4% 25.0% 405 12.5% 8.3% 13.7% 27
4 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 54 🟠 C · · 64 0.196 90.1 9.9% 17.1% 389 19.6% 7.7% 12.1% 42
5 Jeremiah Jackson Jeremiah Jackson 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 91 0.162 89.1 8.5% 23.1% 396 11.8% 0.0% 12.0% 31
6 Tyler O'Neill Tyler O'Neill 35 ⚪ D · · 172 0.065 89.5 5.4% 15.4% 397 13.3% 33.3% 8.5% 23
7 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 29 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 205 0.112 89.0 4.7% 0.0% 390 4.1% 7.7% 5.5% 25
8 Weston Wilson Weston Wilson 20 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 239 0.072 87.5 4.8% 0.0% 363 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 10
9 Blaze Alexander Blaze Alexander 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 243 0.045 91.8 1.5% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9
Shane Baz
Shane Baz RHP
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 71 🟡 B · 🌤️ WARM 23 0.223 92.0 13.0% 32.1% 407 27.3% 30.8% 34.4% 40
2 Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 51 🟠 C · · 75 0.196 89.5 10.4% 21.1% 396 14.0% 7.7% 11.1% 31
3 Ryan Vilade Ryan Vilade 40 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 128 0.158 90.0 4.0% 16.7% 402 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 16
4 Jonny DeLuca Jonny DeLuca 25 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 218 0.161 85.1 3.4% 0.0% 416 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 28
5 Richie Palacios Richie Palacios 23 ⚪ D · · 231 0.064 86.0 5.2% 9.1% 382 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 19
6 Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson 17 ⚪ D · · 249 0.044 83.9 · 9.1% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 38
7 Cedric Mullins Cedric Mullins 17 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 250 0.078 87.1 1.7% 11.5% 379 6.1% 8.3% 6.1% 30
8 Taylor Walls Taylor Walls 14 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 254 0.054 82.6 2.4% 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 30
9 Hunter Feduccia Hunter Feduccia 12 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 257 0.023 88.0 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 12
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.74

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.