⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
BAL
@ 6:40p
MIA
loanDepot Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
0.94×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
neutral
Combined
0.943
Wind
0 mph
dome
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Liam Hicks Liam Hicks 54 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 17 0.233 88.1 · 38.9% 371 22.6% 25.0% 31.9% 27
2 Connor Norby Connor Norby 36 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 100 0.156 88.2 · 18.8% 390 9.4% 9.1% 7.6% 19
3 Jakob Marsee Jakob Marsee 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 136 0.088 87.8 · 5.6% 351 5.3% 8.3% 6.7% 29
4 Otto Lopez Otto Lopez 30 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 147 0.175 91.5 · 13.3% 390 6.1% 0.0% 7.4% 40
5 Xavier Edwards Xavier Edwards 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 184 0.120 88.5 · 10.0% 385 3.0% 8.3% 7.4% 41
6 Graham Pauley Graham Pauley 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 185 0.141 83.7 · 6.2% 362 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 17
7 Agustín Ramírez Agustín Ramírez 24 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 190 0.125 89.2 · 12.5% 415 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% 25
8 Owen Caissie Owen Caissie 22 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 200 0.141 90.7 · 15.4% 387 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 16
9 Heriberto Hernández 9 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 256 0.031 89.0 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 11
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Gunnar Henderson Gunnar Henderson 46 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 45 0.279 89.7 · 26.1% 388 25.0% 15.4% 20.4% 31
2 Coby Mayo Coby Mayo 44 ⚪ D · 🔥 HOT 49 0.166 88.5 · 10.0% 429 10.0% 25.0% 12.9% 22
3 Pete Alonso Pete Alonso 41 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 60 0.162 95.3 · 25.0% 395 14.7% 30.8% 15.9% 36
4 Samuel Basallo Samuel Basallo 37 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 83 0.221 92.4 · 28.6% 410 15.8% 16.7% 23.4% 23
5 Jeremiah Jackson Jeremiah Jackson 34 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 118 0.185 88.8 · 33.3% 396 18.2% 15.4% 11.3% 33
6 Dylan Beavers Dylan Beavers 31 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 137 0.125 87.3 · 16.7% 406 5.3% 7.7% 7.2% 23
7 Leody Taveras Leody Taveras 21 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 207 0.143 87.3 · 18.8% 409 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 25
8 Taylor Ward Taylor Ward 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 222 0.142 89.3 · 0.0% 394 2.9% 0.0% 4.8% 27
9 Blaze Alexander Blaze Alexander 14 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 234 0.018 91.6 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 18
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.