⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs 1 Jarren Duran 6 HRs · 2 Juan Soto 6 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Willy Adames 5 HRs · 5 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 6 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 7 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs
ATL
@ 3:10p
COL
Coors Field · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.08×
Weather Mod
+0.0%
cool air · steady partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.080
Temp
55.4°F
Wind
9.2 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Hunter Goodman Hunter Goodman 63 🔵 C+ · 🌤️ WARM 1 0.318 93.8 · 34.8% 403 22.2% 25.0% 29.0% 28
2 Mickey Moniak Mickey Moniak 59 🟠 C · · 3 0.345 89.8 · 32.0% 419 22.2% 23.1% 40.0% 33
3 Edouard Julien Edouard Julien 33 ⚪ D · · 97 0.141 91.1 · 23.1% 389 7.1% 8.3% 11.5% 24
4 TJ Rumfield 30 ⚪ D · · 120 0.154 86.8 · 16.7% 417 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 43
5 Willi Castro Willi Castro 28 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 135 0.110 89.0 · 7.7% 436 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 22
6 Kyle Karros Kyle Karros 26 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 151 0.068 90.4 · 11.1% 448 5.0% 7.1% 6.6% 30
7 Troy Johnston Troy Johnston 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 152 0.142 88.9 · 21.4% 415 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 35
8 Brenton Doyle Brenton Doyle 25 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 160 0.073 89.6 · 8.3% 408 3.7% 0.0% 6.3% 19
9 Ezequiel Tovar Ezequiel Tovar 18 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 206 0.097 87.2 · 11.5% 401 3.4% 0.0% 6.6% 25
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 62 🔵 C+ · · 2 0.330 92.8 · 16.7% 413 29.0% 41.7% 28.3% 45
2 Michael Harris II 55 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 8 0.220 95.2 · 16.7% 390 20.7% 30.0% 25.0% 36
3 Drake Baldwin Drake Baldwin 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 14 0.197 91.4 · 50.0% 398 22.6% 16.7% 32.3% 36
4 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 51 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 15 0.216 87.1 · 21.4% 382 19.4% 25.0% 20.7% 48
5 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 64 0.219 89.8 · 22.2% 398 11.5% 0.0% 15.9% 17
6 Ronald Acuña Jr. Ronald Acuña Jr. 35 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 89 0.130 89.2 · 0.0% 411 11.8% 8.3% 6.0% 34
7 Austin Riley Austin Riley 27 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 141 0.128 90.5 · 30.0% 398 6.5% 0.0% 10.8% 31
8 Mauricio Dubón Mauricio Dubón 26 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 153 0.151 87.2 · 0.0% 393 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 37
9 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 24 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 165 0.068 90.0 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 26
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.82

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.