⚾ TheHomeRuns.org 2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs 1 Juan Soto 5 HRs · 2 Jarren Duran 5 HRs · 3 Julio Rodríguez 5 HRs · 4 Gunnar Henderson 4 HRs · 5 Christian Walker 4 HRs · 6 Casey Schmitt 4 HRs · 7 Spencer Horwitz 4 HRs · 8 Yandy Díaz 4 HRs · 9 Michael Harris II 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs
ATL
@ 6:40p
CIN
Great American Ball Park · 18 ranked batters
Park Factor
1.12×
Weather Mod
+1.0%
warm air · light partial wind out · roof open
Combined
1.229
Temp
78.8°F
Wind
2.0 mph
slight_out
Roof
open
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Nathaniel Lowe Nathaniel Lowe 80 🟢 A · 🌤️ WARM 4 0.270 90.5 11.3% 42.1% 399 22.2% 20.0% 39.2% 24
2 Elly De La Cruz Elly De La Cruz 73 🟡 B · · 11 0.239 94.1 11.5% 21.2% 394 17.0% 23.1% 27.9% 27
3 JJ Bleday JJ Bleday 70 🟡 B +950 🌧️ COOL 17 0.293 90.8 10.8% 31.6% 389 13.6% 10.0% 21.2% 35
4 Sal Stewart Sal Stewart 63 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 35 0.213 90.7 11.9% 21.6% 393 10.0% 15.4% 25.6% 29
5 Spencer Steer Spencer Steer 56 🟠 C · · 59 0.175 89.8 11.1% 11.8% 392 9.6% 0.0% 13.2% 35
6 Tyler Stephenson Tyler Stephenson 47 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 103 0.146 90.6 10.4% 14.8% 383 6.5% 10.0% 12.3% 19
7 Eugenio Suárez Eugenio Suárez 47 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 109 0.123 86.1 8.8% 18.2% 397 3.3% 0.0% 10.8% 10
8 Blake Dunn Blake Dunn 39 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 152 0.138 88.5 6.8% 0.0% 393 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 29
9 TJ Friedl TJ Friedl 35 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 175 0.089 88.0 4.9% 8.3% 364 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% 8
9 batters
# Batter Score Tier Odds Form Rank ISO ?Isolated Power — career SLG minus AVG. >.220 elite, .180–.220 above avg, <.140 below avg. EV ?Avg Exit Velocity (mph) — Statcast season-to-date. >92 elite, 89–92 above avg, <86 below avg. Barrel% ?Barrel rate vs. this pitch mix — percentage of contact classified as barrels (perfect EV + LA combo). >12% elite, 8–12% above avg. HR/FB ?Batter HR / Fly Ball rate — career, all pitchers. >18% elite, 14–18% above avg, <10% below avg. HR Dist ?Average distance (ft) of this batter's HRs. >400ft elite raw power, 380–400 above avg. Sea HR% ?Season HR rate (HRs / PAs so far this year). v3.5 model feature — top backtest contributor. 14d Pace ?Recent 14-day HR pace (HRs / games started). v3.5 model feature — captures current form. Match% ?HR/FB Matchup — combined batter × pitcher HR/FB rate. The headline "how favorable is this matchup" number. BBE ?Sample size — batted-ball events. <30 = small sample, treat stats with caution.
1 Matt Olson Matt Olson 71 🟡 B · 🌧️ COOL 14 0.303 93.3 11.2% 36.4% 414 24.1% 7.7% 20.7% 40
2 Michael Harris II 68 🔵 C+ · 🌧️ COOL 19 0.211 93.4 11.3% 28.1% 401 21.2% 38.5% 27.9% 44
3 Austin Riley Austin Riley 58 🟠 C · · 53 0.192 91.0 9.1% 18.4% 409 11.1% 15.4% 23.1% 25
4 Mike Yastrzemski Mike Yastrzemski 56 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 60 0.163 90.3 6.2% 17.2% 374 9.7% 33.3% 19.1% 15
5 Ronald Acuña Jr. Ronald Acuña Jr. 50 🟠 C · 🌤️ WARM 87 0.117 89.6 9.9% 9.5% 413 8.3% 10.0% 8.6% 22
6 Jorge Mateo Jorge Mateo 48 ⚪ D · 🌤️ WARM 99 0.137 90.0 9.3% 16.7% 380 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10
7 Dominic Smith Dominic Smith 47 ⚪ D · ❄ COLD 104 0.179 89.4 8.5% 16.1% 397 9.3% 14.3% 12.2% 23
8 Ozzie Albies Ozzie Albies 45 ⚪ D · · 124 0.146 86.5 5.7% 14.3% 389 14.8% 7.7% 9.7% 46
9 Chadwick Tromp Chadwick Tromp 16 ⚪ D · 🌧️ COOL 247 · 85.9 · 0.0% · 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 13
🏟️

Unlock the full game board

See every batter in this game, both pitcher groups, all HR profile signals, and the matchup context that drives the slate.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.2.70

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.