Victor Mesa Jr.
TB
· 26 appearances tracked
4
HRs
15.4%
HR Rate
19.5%
Avg HR/FB
88.7
Avg EV
0.196
ISO
#10
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.238
Avg EV89.4
Barrel%10.9%
HR/FB vs RHP26.7%
Avg HR Dist401
Match%17.0%
Season HR%
15.4%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
58.2%
8
Breaking
26.4%
4
Offspeed
15.3%
2
All
100%
10.9%
14
19.9%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Gavin Williams · RHP · TB
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No prior plate appearances vs Gavin Williams in our data. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon —
Weather +2
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
10.9
vs
—
HR/FB
26.7
vs
20.0 ▲ edge
K%
19.9
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
4 this season · avg 409 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Sep 11
vs HOU · Ethan Pecko
—
106.0
415
Sep 20
vs BOS · Patrick Sandoval
—
103.9
403
HR by month
Sep
All Appearances
26 tracked · 4 HR · 14 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 27
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
2
101.6
2 BIP
Sep 26
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
5
102.5
5 BIP
Sep 24
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
104.5
3 BIP
Sep 23
@ NYY · Gerrit Cole
3
83.2
3 BIP
Sep 20
vs BOS · Patrick Sandoval
2
103.9
HR
2 BIP
Sep 19
vs BOS · Brayan Bello
1
67.9
1 BIP
Sep 18
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
2
105.1
2 BIP
Sep 16
vs ATH · Brady Basso
3
103.5
3 BIP
Sep 15
vs ATH · Jack Perkins
3
101.1
3 BIP
Sep 13
vs HOU · Hayden Wesneski
4
107.1
4 BIP
Sep 12
vs HOU · Peter Lambert
1
105.7
1 BIP
Sep 11
vs HOU · Miguel Ullola
2
106.0
HR
2 BIP
Sep 9
@ ATL · Reynaldo López
3
105.4
HR
3 BIP
Sep 8
@ ATL · AJ Smith-Shawver
5
102.4
5 BIP
Sep 6
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
4
99.6
4 BIP
Sep 5
@ TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
97.2
3 BIP
Sep 2
vs NYM · NYM Bullpen Proxy
4
95.4
4 BIP
Sep 1
vs NYM · Sean Manaea
4
101.6
4 BIP
Aug 18
vs TOR · José Soriano
0
—
—
Aug 14
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
3
99.5
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs DET · Troy Melton
2
104.8
2 BIP
Jun 2
vs DET · Jack Flaherty
2
78.4
2 BIP
Jun 1
vs DET · Ty Madden
2
99.2
2 BIP
May 31
vs LAA · Jack Kochanowicz
2
100.7
2 BIP
May 26
@ BAL · Shane Baz
2
85.1
2 BIP
May 25
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
5
105.9
HR
5 BIP
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.950
Wind
9 mph from SSE
Temp
67°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
2:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
3:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
4:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
5:00p
9 ↖
67°
+6
+6
Slight green alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to oppo (from SSE)
Open the Dueness Calendar → His month grid, rhythm tightness, and tonight’s crossing mark load on demand.
Score Breakdown
Base 50 → 50
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
Pitcher FIP
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Victor Mesa Jr.
Will Victor Mesa Jr. hit a home run today?
Victor Mesa Jr. is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #7 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Gavin Williams at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Victor Mesa Jr. hit home runs?
Across 26 scored games this season, Victor Mesa Jr. has 4 home runs — one every 6.5 games, or about 15% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.