Otto Lopez
RHB
MIA
· 132 appearances tracked
9
HRs
6.8%
HR Rate
11.0%
Avg HR/FB
90.3
Avg EV
0.150
ISO
#17
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.134
Avg EV89.1
Barrel%6.3%
HR/FB vs LHP6.9%
Avg HR Dist402
Match%9.7%
Season HR%
6.8%
14D Pace
8.3%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-31
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
50.7%
6
Breaking
35.5%
2
Offspeed
13.8%
1
All
100%
6.2%
9
12.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Will Dion · LHP · MIA
SMALL SAMPLE · 3 PA · since 2026
.000
AVG
.000
SLG
0
HR
0-for-3 across 3 plate appearances since 2026. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
3 of 4 active
Nationals +HR
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather +2
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
6.3
vs
—
HR/FB
6.9
vs
23.5 ▼ risk
K%
12.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
132 tracked · 9 HR · 7 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 30
@ WSH · Andrew Alvarez
4
105.3
HR
4 BIP
Aug 29
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
3
79.2
3 BIP
Aug 28
@ WSH · Jackson Kent
3
104.4
3 BIP
Aug 26
vs BOS · Sonny Gray
4
105.7
4 BIP
Aug 25
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
3
103.6
3 BIP
Aug 24
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
5
104.3
5 BIP
Aug 23
vs WSH · Jackson Kent
3
96.0
3 BIP
Aug 22
vs WSH · Jake Irvin
4
106.8
4 BIP
Aug 21
vs WSH · Brad Lord
4
96.6
4 BIP
Aug 19
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
3
101.6
3 BIP
Aug 18
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
3
106.3
3 BIP
Aug 17
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
3
106.2
3 BIP
Aug 16
@ CIN · Nick Lodolo
4
99.5
4 BIP
Aug 15
@ CIN · Brady Singer
4
93.3
4 BIP
Aug 14
@ CIN · Chase Burns
4
106.0
4 BIP
Aug 13
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
2
92.0
2 BIP
Aug 12
vs PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
5
100.6
5 BIP
Aug 11
vs PIT · Paul Skenes
4
109.2
4 BIP
Aug 9
vs LAA · Grayson Rodriguez
4
100.9
4 BIP
Aug 8
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
2
80.6
2 BIP
Aug 7
vs LAA · George Klassen
5
88.9
5 BIP
Aug 6
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
5
98.8
5 BIP
Aug 5
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
4
95.4
4 BIP
Aug 4
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
4
101.4
4 BIP
Aug 2
@ NYM · NYM Bullpen Proxy
4
104.8
4 BIP
Aug 1
@ NYM · Zac Thornton
4
102.9
4 BIP
Jul 31
@ NYM · Kodai Senga
4
105.6
4 BIP
Jul 30
@ NYM · Nolan McLean
3
99.3
3 BIP
Jul 29
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
5
103.5
5 BIP
Jul 28
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
4
98.6
4 BIP
Jul 27
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
5
103.0
5 BIP
Jul 26
vs SD · Walker Buehler
2
101.0
2 BIP
Jul 25
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
3
99.0
3 BIP
Jul 24
vs SD · Germán Márquez
5
100.8
5 BIP
Jul 22
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
4
104.4
4 BIP
Jul 21
@ HOU · Tatsuya Imai
2
90.4
2 BIP
Jul 18
@ MIL · Shane Drohan
4
101.8
4 BIP
Jul 17
@ MIL · Logan Henderson
4
100.4
4 BIP
Jul 12
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
1
54.8
1 BIP
Jul 11
vs CLE · Tanner Bibee
2
89.7
2 BIP
Jul 10
vs CLE · Parker Messick
3
94.1
3 BIP
Jul 9
vs SEA · Bryce Miller
3
101.8
3 BIP
Jul 8
vs SEA · George Kirby
3
104.3
3 BIP
Jul 7
vs SEA · Bryan Woo
5
107.0
5 BIP
Jul 5
@ ATH · Gage Jump
5
106.2
HR
5 BIP
Jul 4
@ ATH · Aaron Civale
5
102.5
HR
5 BIP
Jul 3
@ ATH · Jack Perkins
4
74.4
4 BIP
Jul 2
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
5
103.6
5 BIP
Jul 1
@ COL · Kyle Freeland
4
105.4
4 BIP
Jun 30
@ COL · Tanner Gordon
0
—
—
Jun 29
@ COL · Sean Sullivan
5
99.9
HR
5 BIP
Jun 28
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
2
82.3
2 BIP
Jun 27
@ STL · Andre Pallante
5
98.8
5 BIP
Jun 26
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
4
99.4
4 BIP
Jun 24
vs TEX · Jacob deGrom
3
106.2
HR
3 BIP
Jun 23
vs TEX · Cal Quantrill
5
89.0
5 BIP
Jun 22
vs TEX · Tyler Alexander
2
93.9
2 BIP
Jun 21
vs SF · Logan Webb
3
99.2
3 BIP
Jun 20
vs SF · Trevor McDonald
5
99.8
5 BIP
Jun 19
vs SF · Landen Roupp
3
106.4
3 BIP
Jun 17
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
3
87.9
3 BIP
Jun 16
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
4
96.5
4 BIP
Jun 15
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
3
99.1
3 BIP
Jun 14
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
4
95.4
4 BIP
Jun 13
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
102.8
3 BIP
Jun 12
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
5
106.3
5 BIP
Jun 11
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
4
105.6
4 BIP
Jun 10
vs AZ · Ryne Nelson
4
111.9
4 BIP
Jun 9
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
5
106.0
5 BIP
Jun 7
vs TB · Griffin Jax
4
102.1
4 BIP
Jun 6
vs TB · Shane McClanahan
3
96.1
3 BIP
Jun 5
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
74.5
2 BIP
Jun 3
@ WSH · Andrew Alvarez
4
108.7
4 BIP
Jun 2
@ WSH · Richard Lovelady
5
107.1
HR
5 BIP
Jun 1
@ WSH · Cade Cavalli
4
97.7
4 BIP
May 31
@ NYM · Nolan McLean
2
106.4
2 BIP
May 30
@ NYM · Christian Scott
2
105.1
2 BIP
May 29
@ NYM · Freddy Peralta
4
101.3
4 BIP
May 27
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
4
96.5
4 BIP
May 26
@ TOR · Braydon Fisher
4
102.0
4 BIP
May 25
@ TOR · Trey Yesavage
4
103.5
4 BIP
May 24
vs NYM · Christian Scott
4
104.1
4 BIP
May 23
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
3
105.6
3 BIP
May 22
vs NYM · Tobias Myers
1
74.5
1 BIP
May 21
vs ATL · Spencer Strider
2
97.4
2 BIP
May 20
vs ATL · Chris Sale
4
106.5
4 BIP
May 19
vs ATL · Martín Pérez
4
102.6
4 BIP
May 18
vs ATL · JR Ritchie
3
99.7
3 BIP
May 17
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
4
99.4
4 BIP
May 16
@ TB · Nick Martinez
5
106.4
5 BIP
May 15
@ TB · Ian Seymour
4
86.3
4 BIP
May 13
@ MIN · Simeon Woods Richardson
3
93.5
3 BIP
May 12
@ MIN · Bailey Ober
2
95.2
2 BIP
May 10
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
3
100.7
3 BIP
May 9
vs WSH · Zack Littell
4
106.5
4 BIP
May 8
vs WSH · Foster Griffin
4
110.2
4 BIP
May 7
vs BAL · Cade Povich
4
101.5
4 BIP
May 6
vs BAL · Brandon Young
2
106.2
2 BIP
May 5
vs BAL · Chris Bassitt
5
106.5
HR
5 BIP
May 4
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
4
107.9
4 BIP
May 3
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
96.9
3 BIP
May 2
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
4
87.7
4 BIP
May 1
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
5
105.7
5 BIP
Apr 29
@ LAD · Tyler Glasnow
2
93.9
2 BIP
Apr 28
@ LAD · Shohei Ohtani
4
101.0
4 BIP
Apr 27
@ LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1
77.9
1 BIP
Apr 26
@ SF · Landen Roupp
3
96.1
3 BIP
Apr 25
@ SF · Robbie Ray
4
94.2
4 BIP
Apr 24
@ SF · Adrian Houser
4
105.2
4 BIP
Apr 22
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
2
110.9
2 BIP
Apr 21
vs STL · Dustin May
4
104.9
4 BIP
Apr 20
vs STL · Michael McGreevy
3
91.2
3 BIP
Apr 19
vs MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
4
103.2
4 BIP
Apr 18
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
4
103.1
4 BIP
Apr 15
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
2
98.5
2 BIP
Apr 14
@ ATL · Reynaldo López
2
107.9
2 BIP
Apr 13
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
3
108.1
3 BIP
Apr 12
@ DET · Tarik Skubal
4
107.0
HR
4 BIP
Apr 11
@ DET · Casey Mize
4
109.5
4 BIP
Apr 10
@ DET · Keider Montero
3
95.3
3 BIP
Apr 9
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
3
112.8
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs CIN · Brady Singer
0
—
—
Apr 7
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
4
105.6
4 BIP
Apr 6
vs CIN · Brandon Williamson
4
106.3
4 BIP
Apr 5
@ NYY · Max Fried
3
100.0
3 BIP
Apr 4
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
102.0
3 BIP
Apr 1
vs CWS · Shane Smith
4
102.8
HR
4 BIP
Mar 31
vs CWS · Erick Fedde
3
94.9
3 BIP
Mar 30
vs CWS · Davis Martin
2
100.9
2 BIP
Mar 29
vs COL · Jose Quintana
4
102.2
4 BIP
Mar 28
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
4
99.4
4 BIP
Mar 27
vs COL · Kyle Freeland
2
98.8
2 BIP
Ballpark
Nationals Park · open-air
Park Factor
1.193
Wind
5 mph from NW
Temp
85°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:45p
5 ←
85°
+6
7:45p
3 ←
83°
+6
8:45p
2 ←
80°
+7
9:45p
2 ←
78°
+7
10:45p
2 ←
76°
+8
+7
Slight green alignment
proxy spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing across to oppo (from WNW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Mon 8/31
Dueness now
0.00×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
19 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
0 gm
since his last HR, Aug 30
Season
9 HR
132 games · 1 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 8 gaps · median 19 gm · MAD ± 12.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 44 → 44
ISO (Power)
Park Factor
Barrel Matchup
Pitcher FIP
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
recent hr density 14d
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Otto Lopez
Will Otto Lopez hit a home run today?
Otto Lopez is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #84 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Will Dion at Nationals Park. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Otto Lopez hit home runs?
Across 132 scored games this season, Otto Lopez has 9 home runs — one every 14.7 games, or about 7% of his scored games.
Has Otto Lopez homered off Will Dion before?
Not yet — Otto Lopez has faced Will Dion 3 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.