2026
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

AZ · 150 appearances tracked
28 HRs
18.7% HR Rate
20.7% Avg HR/FB
84.9 Avg EV
0.178 ISO
#25 Best Rank
as of 2026-10-17
HR Profile Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet. The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch Seen Barrel% HR K%
Fastball 51.8%
9.3%
20
13.9%
Breaking 35.9%
4.3%
7
27.1%
Offspeed 12.2%
4.1%
3
26.0%
All 100% 7.0% 30 20.1%
Barrel vs. Whiff BRL K
Fastball Breaking Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed. K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers 0 of 4 active
Ballpark — Pitcher form — Platoon — Weather —
Edge by rate · batter ● vs pitcher-allowed ●
K% 20.1 vs —
20.1
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days 28 this season · avg 407 ft
Date Opp · Pitcher Pitch EV Dist
Apr 13 Gavin Williams · Busch Stadium — 101.8 401.0
Aug 15 @ ATL · Brent Suter — 99.5 387
Sep 22 @ COL · Zach Agnos — 106.2 421
Sep 24 @ COL · Tanner Gordon — 102.5 419
HR by month
1
1
2
Apr Aug Sep
All Appearances 150 tracked · 28 HR · 23 top‑50
Date Opp · Pitcher BIP Max EV Result HR
Sep 27 @ SD · Randy Vásquez 3 100.9 3 BIP
Sep 26 @ SD · Walker Buehler 2 93.4 2 BIP
Sep 25 @ SD · SD Bullpen Proxy 3 101.3 HR 3 BIP
Sep 24 @ COL · Tanner Gordon 4 102.5 HR 4 BIP
Sep 23 @ COL · Mason Adams 2 98.0 2 BIP
Sep 22 @ COL · Kyle Freeland 4 107.3 HR 4 BIP
Sep 20 vs NYY · Will Warren 3 100.3 HR 3 BIP
Sep 19 vs NYY · Cam Schlittler 3 88.5 3 BIP
Sep 18 vs NYY · Gerrit Cole 4 86.4 4 BIP
Sep 16 vs MIA · Ryan Gusto 4 105.7 HR 4 BIP
Sep 15 vs MIA · Janson Junk 3 86.5 3 BIP
Sep 14 vs MIA · Sandy Alcantara 1 74.2 1 BIP
Sep 13 vs TEX · Cal Quantrill 4 105.4 HR 4 BIP
Sep 12 vs TEX · Kumar Rocker 0 — —
Sep 11 vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore 3 101.4 HR 3 BIP
Sep 9 @ KC · Daniel Lynch IV 3 106.5 HR 3 BIP
Sep 8 @ KC · Michael Wacha 3 108.5 3 BIP
Sep 7 @ KC · Noah Cameron 3 101.4 3 BIP
Sep 6 @ HOU · Peter Lambert 3 103.3 HR 3 BIP
Sep 5 @ HOU · Ethan Pecko 3 92.1 3 BIP
Sep 4 @ HOU · Cristian Javier 2 73.2 2 BIP
Sep 2 vs PHI · Andrew Painter 3 94.0 3 BIP
Sep 1 vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo 3 97.7 3 BIP
Aug 31 vs PHI · Aaron Nola 3 88.2 3 BIP
Aug 29 @ SF · Matt Wilkinson 8 102.1 8 BIP
Aug 28 @ SF · Blade Tidwell 4 94.9 4 BIP
Aug 27 @ SF · Landen Roupp 0 — —
Aug 26 vs CHC · Matthew Boyd 3 103.3 3 BIP
Aug 25 vs CHC · Clay Holmes 3 99.4 3 BIP
Aug 24 vs CHC · Kevin Gausman 3 92.1 3 BIP
Aug 23 vs CIN · Andrew Abbott 2 83.7 2 BIP
Aug 22 vs CIN · Rhett Lowder 2 98.7 HR 2 BIP
Aug 21 vs CIN · Nick Lodolo 4 93.2 4 BIP
Aug 19 @ BOS · Payton Tolle 2 94.7 2 BIP
Aug 17 @ BOS · Alec Gamboa 0 — —
Aug 16 @ ATL · Bryce Elder 2 90.8 2 BIP
Aug 15 @ ATL · Grant Holmes 4 99.5 HR 4 BIP
Aug 14 @ ATL · Chris Sale 1 72.5 1 BIP
Aug 12 vs COL · Ryan Feltner 4 94.3 4 BIP
Aug 11 vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano 4 102.3 4 BIP
Aug 10 vs COL · Gabriel Hughes 4 103.4 HR 4 BIP
Aug 9 vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski 3 91.5 3 BIP
Aug 8 vs LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4 95.1 4 BIP
Aug 7 vs LAD · Roki Sasaki 2 95.8 HR 2 BIP
Aug 6 vs SD · Walker Buehler 3 91.8 3 BIP
Aug 5 vs SD · Casey Mize 0 — —
Aug 4 vs SD · Randy Vásquez 4 102.0 HR 4 BIP
Aug 3 vs SD · Michael King 2 101.6 2 BIP
Aug 2 @ CLE · Gavin Williams 1 74.0 1 BIP
Aug 1 @ CLE · Parker Messick 4 104.7 HR 4 BIP
Jul 31 @ CLE · Tanner Bibee 4 88.7 4 BIP
Jul 29 @ PIT · Jared Jones 2 95.9 2 BIP
Jul 28 @ PIT · Bubba Chandler 3 96.0 3 BIP
Jul 26 @ WSH · Miles Mikolas 4 96.8 4 BIP
Jul 25 @ WSH · Foster Griffin 3 102.1 3 BIP
Jul 24 @ WSH · Carson Palmquist 3 82.4 3 BIP
Jul 22 vs ATH · Gage Jump 1 100.1 HR 1 BIP
Jul 21 vs ATH · Jack Perkins 3 72.2 3 BIP
Jul 20 vs ATH · Jeffrey Springs 3 106.2 3 BIP
Jul 19 vs STL · Andre Pallante 3 102.4 HR 3 BIP
Jul 18 vs STL · Dustin May 4 101.8 4 BIP
Jul 17 vs STL · Michael McGreevy 1 102.8 1 BIP
Jul 12 @ LAD · Emmet Sheehan 4 104.7 4 BIP
Jul 11 @ LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto 3 98.9 HR 3 BIP
Jul 10 @ LAD · Kyle Hurt 0 — —
Jul 9 @ SD · Griffin Canning 1 101.1 HR 1 BIP
Jul 8 @ SD · Michael King 4 102.1 4 BIP
Jul 7 @ SD · Germán Márquez 2 95.0 2 BIP
Jul 6 @ SD · Walker Buehler 3 98.7 HR 3 BIP
Jul 4 vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff 2 89.0 2 BIP
Jul 3 vs MIL · Kyle Harrison 4 97.2 4 BIP
Jul 1 vs SF · Trevor McDonald 3 105.0 3 BIP
Jun 30 vs SF · Landen Roupp 2 96.4 2 BIP
Jun 29 vs SF · Tyler Mahle 2 103.9 HR 2 BIP
Jun 28 @ TB · Drew Rasmussen 1 64.6 1 BIP
Jun 27 @ TB · Cole Sulser 3 94.9 3 BIP
Jun 26 @ TB · Nick Martinez 3 85.0 3 BIP
Jun 25 @ STL · Michael McGreevy 0 — —
Jun 24 @ STL · Matthew Liberatore 4 100.9 4 BIP
Jun 23 @ STL · Kyle Leahy 4 105.0 4 BIP
Jun 22 @ STL · Andre Pallante 4 100.4 4 BIP
Jun 21 vs MIN · Mike Paredes 2 97.7 2 BIP
Jun 20 vs MIN · Taj Bradley 2 96.5 2 BIP
Jun 19 vs MIN · Connor Prielipp 3 89.3 3 BIP
Jun 17 vs LAA · Sam Aldegheri 4 95.8 4 BIP
Jun 16 vs LAA · Reid Detmers 3 102.7 3 BIP
Jun 15 vs LAA · Walbert Ureña 3 94.8 3 BIP
Jun 14 @ CIN · Andrew Abbott 3 84.4 3 BIP
Jun 13 @ CIN · Rhett Lowder 2 91.2 2 BIP
Jun 12 @ CIN · Nick Lodolo 5 98.6 5 BIP
Jun 11 @ MIA · Tyler Phillips 1 61.9 1 BIP
Jun 10 @ MIA · Ryan Gusto 1 57.1 1 BIP
Jun 9 @ MIA · Max Meyer 4 102.0 4 BIP
Jun 7 vs WSH · Cade Cavalli 2 92.0 2 BIP
Jun 6 vs WSH · Zack Littell 3 96.7 3 BIP
Jun 5 vs WSH · Foster Griffin 1 48.6 1 BIP
Jun 4 vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski 3 98.6 3 BIP
Jun 3 vs LAD · Shohei Ohtani 2 85.8 2 BIP
Jun 2 vs LAD · Eric Lauer 4 103.8 4 BIP
Jun 1 vs LAD · Emmet Sheehan 2 98.4 HR 2 BIP
May 31 @ SEA · Bryce Miller 1 91.0 1 BIP
May 30 @ SEA · Bryan Woo 0 — —
May 29 @ SEA · George Kirby 1 97.0 1 BIP
May 26 @ SF · Tyler Mahle 2 96.7 2 BIP
May 25 @ SF · Landen Roupp 3 91.9 3 BIP
May 24 vs COL · Jose Quintana 3 99.8 3 BIP
May 22 vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano 3 98.9 3 BIP
May 21 vs COL · Zach Agnos 3 81.8 3 BIP
May 19 vs SF · Landen Roupp 4 93.2 4 BIP
May 18 vs SF · Robbie Ray 3 107.3 HR 3 BIP
May 17 @ COL · Michael Lorenzen 3 97.8 3 BIP
May 16 @ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano 2 92.9 2 BIP
May 15 @ COL · Kyle Freeland 1 105.4 1 BIP
May 13 @ TEX · Kumar Rocker 4 103.2 4 BIP
May 12 @ TEX · MacKenzie Gore 2 102.0 2 BIP
May 11 @ TEX · Nathan Eovaldi 4 103.4 4 BIP
May 10 vs NYM · Huascar Brazobán 2 98.0 2 BIP
May 9 vs NYM · Clay Holmes 3 77.4 3 BIP
May 8 vs NYM · Nolan McLean 3 101.8 HR 3 BIP
May 7 vs PIT · Mitch Keller 0 — —
May 6 vs PIT · Paul Skenes 2 105.7 2 BIP
May 5 vs PIT · Bubba Chandler 1 81.7 1 BIP
May 3 @ CHC · Matthew Boyd 3 104.7 3 BIP
May 2 @ CHC · Shota Imanaga 2 96.7 2 BIP
May 1 @ CHC · Colin Rea 2 98.7 2 BIP
Apr 30 @ MIL · Brandon Woodruff 2 87.1 2 BIP
Apr 29 @ MIL · Brandon Sproat 3 104.3 HR 3 BIP
Apr 28 @ MIL · Chad Patrick 1 59.7 1 BIP
Apr 26 vs SD · Michael King 3 95.8 3 BIP
Apr 25 vs SD · Germán Márquez 4 92.4 4 BIP
Apr 23 vs CWS · Davis Martin 2 102.0 2 BIP
Apr 22 vs CWS · Anthony Kay 4 102.3 HR 4 BIP
Apr 21 vs CWS · Sean Burke 0 — —
Apr 19 vs TOR · Kevin Gausman 2 74.9 2 BIP
Apr 18 vs TOR · Max Scherzer 3 89.1 3 BIP
Apr 17 vs TOR · Eric Lauer 4 107.5 HR 4 BIP
Apr 15 @ BAL · Kyle Bradish 4 81.9 4 BIP
Apr 13 vs CLE · Gavin Williams 3 103.6 HR 3 BIP
Apr 12 @ PHI · Andrew Painter 3 92.5 3 BIP
Apr 11 vs BOS · Ranger Suarez 2 80.3 2 BIP
Apr 10 @ PHI · Jesús Luzardo 3 86.0 3 BIP
Apr 8 vs STL · Miles Mikolas 3 97.3 3 BIP
Apr 7 vs STL · Cade Cavalli 5 95.6 5 BIP
Apr 6 vs STL · Zack Littell 0 — —
Apr 5 vs STL · Keider Montero 2 103.9 2 BIP
Apr 4 vs STL · Jack Flaherty 3 97.4 3 BIP
Apr 1 vs NYM · Freddy Peralta 2 96.0 2 BIP
Mar 31 vs NYM · Kodai Senga 0 — —
Mar 30 vs NYM · Clay Holmes 5 102.6 5 BIP
Mar 26 vs TB · Drew Rasmussen 2 97.4 2 BIP
Ballpark park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT board — not posted yet next game —
Dueness now
0.67×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
3 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
2 gm
since his last HR, Sep 25
Season
28 HR
150 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 27 gaps · median 3 gm · MAD ± 1 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.

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Six home runs to freedom

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Common questions about Nolan Arenado

Will Nolan Arenado hit a home run today?

Nolan Arenado is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 28 times in 150 scored games (about 19% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.

How often does Nolan Arenado hit home runs?

Across 150 scored games this season, Nolan Arenado has 28 home runs — one every 5.4 games, or about 19% of his scored games.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

THR 3.3.180 · build 681
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