Nolan Arenado
AZ
· 150 appearances tracked
28
HRs
18.7%
HR Rate
20.7%
Avg HR/FB
84.9
Avg EV
0.178
ISO
#25
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet.
The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
51.8%
20
Breaking
35.9%
7
Offspeed
12.2%
3
All
100%
7.0%
30
20.1%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
0 of 4 active
Ballpark —
Pitcher form —
Platoon —
Weather —
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
K%
20.1
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days
28 this season · avg 407 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 13
Gavin Williams · Busch Stadium
—
101.8
401.0
Aug 15
@ ATL · Brent Suter
—
99.5
387
Sep 22
@ COL · Zach Agnos
—
106.2
421
Sep 24
@ COL · Tanner Gordon
—
102.5
419
HR by month
Apr
Aug
Sep
All Appearances
150 tracked · 28 HR · 23 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 27
@ SD · Randy Vásquez
3
100.9
3 BIP
Sep 26
@ SD · Walker Buehler
2
93.4
2 BIP
Sep 25
@ SD · SD Bullpen Proxy
3
101.3
HR
3 BIP
Sep 24
@ COL · Tanner Gordon
4
102.5
HR
4 BIP
Sep 23
@ COL · Mason Adams
2
98.0
2 BIP
Sep 22
@ COL · Kyle Freeland
4
107.3
HR
4 BIP
Sep 20
vs NYY · Will Warren
3
100.3
HR
3 BIP
Sep 19
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
88.5
3 BIP
Sep 18
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
4
86.4
4 BIP
Sep 16
vs MIA · Ryan Gusto
4
105.7
HR
4 BIP
Sep 15
vs MIA · Janson Junk
3
86.5
3 BIP
Sep 14
vs MIA · Sandy Alcantara
1
74.2
1 BIP
Sep 13
vs TEX · Cal Quantrill
4
105.4
HR
4 BIP
Sep 12
vs TEX · Kumar Rocker
0
—
—
Sep 11
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
101.4
HR
3 BIP
Sep 9
@ KC · Daniel Lynch IV
3
106.5
HR
3 BIP
Sep 8
@ KC · Michael Wacha
3
108.5
3 BIP
Sep 7
@ KC · Noah Cameron
3
101.4
3 BIP
Sep 6
@ HOU · Peter Lambert
3
103.3
HR
3 BIP
Sep 5
@ HOU · Ethan Pecko
3
92.1
3 BIP
Sep 4
@ HOU · Cristian Javier
2
73.2
2 BIP
Sep 2
vs PHI · Andrew Painter
3
94.0
3 BIP
Sep 1
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
97.7
3 BIP
Aug 31
vs PHI · Aaron Nola
3
88.2
3 BIP
Aug 29
@ SF · Matt Wilkinson
8
102.1
8 BIP
Aug 28
@ SF · Blade Tidwell
4
94.9
4 BIP
Aug 27
@ SF · Landen Roupp
0
—
—
Aug 26
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
3
103.3
3 BIP
Aug 25
vs CHC · Clay Holmes
3
99.4
3 BIP
Aug 24
vs CHC · Kevin Gausman
3
92.1
3 BIP
Aug 23
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
2
83.7
2 BIP
Aug 22
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
2
98.7
HR
2 BIP
Aug 21
vs CIN · Nick Lodolo
4
93.2
4 BIP
Aug 19
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
2
94.7
2 BIP
Aug 17
@ BOS · Alec Gamboa
0
—
—
Aug 16
@ ATL · Bryce Elder
2
90.8
2 BIP
Aug 15
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
4
99.5
HR
4 BIP
Aug 14
@ ATL · Chris Sale
1
72.5
1 BIP
Aug 12
vs COL · Ryan Feltner
4
94.3
4 BIP
Aug 11
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
4
102.3
4 BIP
Aug 10
vs COL · Gabriel Hughes
4
103.4
HR
4 BIP
Aug 9
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
91.5
3 BIP
Aug 8
vs LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4
95.1
4 BIP
Aug 7
vs LAD · Roki Sasaki
2
95.8
HR
2 BIP
Aug 6
vs SD · Walker Buehler
3
91.8
3 BIP
Aug 5
vs SD · Casey Mize
0
—
—
Aug 4
vs SD · Randy Vásquez
4
102.0
HR
4 BIP
Aug 3
vs SD · Michael King
2
101.6
2 BIP
Aug 2
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
1
74.0
1 BIP
Aug 1
@ CLE · Parker Messick
4
104.7
HR
4 BIP
Jul 31
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
4
88.7
4 BIP
Jul 29
@ PIT · Jared Jones
2
95.9
2 BIP
Jul 28
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
3
96.0
3 BIP
Jul 26
@ WSH · Miles Mikolas
4
96.8
4 BIP
Jul 25
@ WSH · Foster Griffin
3
102.1
3 BIP
Jul 24
@ WSH · Carson Palmquist
3
82.4
3 BIP
Jul 22
vs ATH · Gage Jump
1
100.1
HR
1 BIP
Jul 21
vs ATH · Jack Perkins
3
72.2
3 BIP
Jul 20
vs ATH · Jeffrey Springs
3
106.2
3 BIP
Jul 19
vs STL · Andre Pallante
3
102.4
HR
3 BIP
Jul 18
vs STL · Dustin May
4
101.8
4 BIP
Jul 17
vs STL · Michael McGreevy
1
102.8
1 BIP
Jul 12
@ LAD · Emmet Sheehan
4
104.7
4 BIP
Jul 11
@ LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto
3
98.9
HR
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ LAD · Kyle Hurt
0
—
—
Jul 9
@ SD · Griffin Canning
1
101.1
HR
1 BIP
Jul 8
@ SD · Michael King
4
102.1
4 BIP
Jul 7
@ SD · Germán Márquez
2
95.0
2 BIP
Jul 6
@ SD · Walker Buehler
3
98.7
HR
3 BIP
Jul 4
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
2
89.0
2 BIP
Jul 3
vs MIL · Kyle Harrison
4
97.2
4 BIP
Jul 1
vs SF · Trevor McDonald
3
105.0
3 BIP
Jun 30
vs SF · Landen Roupp
2
96.4
2 BIP
Jun 29
vs SF · Tyler Mahle
2
103.9
HR
2 BIP
Jun 28
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
1
64.6
1 BIP
Jun 27
@ TB · Cole Sulser
3
94.9
3 BIP
Jun 26
@ TB · Nick Martinez
3
85.0
3 BIP
Jun 25
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
0
—
—
Jun 24
@ STL · Matthew Liberatore
4
100.9
4 BIP
Jun 23
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
4
105.0
4 BIP
Jun 22
@ STL · Andre Pallante
4
100.4
4 BIP
Jun 21
vs MIN · Mike Paredes
2
97.7
2 BIP
Jun 20
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
2
96.5
2 BIP
Jun 19
vs MIN · Connor Prielipp
3
89.3
3 BIP
Jun 17
vs LAA · Sam Aldegheri
4
95.8
4 BIP
Jun 16
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
3
102.7
3 BIP
Jun 15
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
3
94.8
3 BIP
Jun 14
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
84.4
3 BIP
Jun 13
@ CIN · Rhett Lowder
2
91.2
2 BIP
Jun 12
@ CIN · Nick Lodolo
5
98.6
5 BIP
Jun 11
@ MIA · Tyler Phillips
1
61.9
1 BIP
Jun 10
@ MIA · Ryan Gusto
1
57.1
1 BIP
Jun 9
@ MIA · Max Meyer
4
102.0
4 BIP
Jun 7
vs WSH · Cade Cavalli
2
92.0
2 BIP
Jun 6
vs WSH · Zack Littell
3
96.7
3 BIP
Jun 5
vs WSH · Foster Griffin
1
48.6
1 BIP
Jun 4
vs LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
98.6
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs LAD · Shohei Ohtani
2
85.8
2 BIP
Jun 2
vs LAD · Eric Lauer
4
103.8
4 BIP
Jun 1
vs LAD · Emmet Sheehan
2
98.4
HR
2 BIP
May 31
@ SEA · Bryce Miller
1
91.0
1 BIP
May 30
@ SEA · Bryan Woo
0
—
—
May 29
@ SEA · George Kirby
1
97.0
1 BIP
May 26
@ SF · Tyler Mahle
2
96.7
2 BIP
May 25
@ SF · Landen Roupp
3
91.9
3 BIP
May 24
vs COL · Jose Quintana
3
99.8
3 BIP
May 22
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
3
98.9
3 BIP
May 21
vs COL · Zach Agnos
3
81.8
3 BIP
May 19
vs SF · Landen Roupp
4
93.2
4 BIP
May 18
vs SF · Robbie Ray
3
107.3
HR
3 BIP
May 17
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
3
97.8
3 BIP
May 16
@ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
2
92.9
2 BIP
May 15
@ COL · Kyle Freeland
1
105.4
1 BIP
May 13
@ TEX · Kumar Rocker
4
103.2
4 BIP
May 12
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
2
102.0
2 BIP
May 11
@ TEX · Nathan Eovaldi
4
103.4
4 BIP
May 10
vs NYM · Huascar Brazobán
2
98.0
2 BIP
May 9
vs NYM · Clay Holmes
3
77.4
3 BIP
May 8
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
3
101.8
HR
3 BIP
May 7
vs PIT · Mitch Keller
0
—
—
May 6
vs PIT · Paul Skenes
2
105.7
2 BIP
May 5
vs PIT · Bubba Chandler
1
81.7
1 BIP
May 3
@ CHC · Matthew Boyd
3
104.7
3 BIP
May 2
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
2
96.7
2 BIP
May 1
@ CHC · Colin Rea
2
98.7
2 BIP
Apr 30
@ MIL · Brandon Woodruff
2
87.1
2 BIP
Apr 29
@ MIL · Brandon Sproat
3
104.3
HR
3 BIP
Apr 28
@ MIL · Chad Patrick
1
59.7
1 BIP
Apr 26
vs SD · Michael King
3
95.8
3 BIP
Apr 25
vs SD · Germán Márquez
4
92.4
4 BIP
Apr 23
vs CWS · Davis Martin
2
102.0
2 BIP
Apr 22
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
4
102.3
HR
4 BIP
Apr 21
vs CWS · Sean Burke
0
—
—
Apr 19
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
2
74.9
2 BIP
Apr 18
vs TOR · Max Scherzer
3
89.1
3 BIP
Apr 17
vs TOR · Eric Lauer
4
107.5
HR
4 BIP
Apr 15
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
4
81.9
4 BIP
Apr 13
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
3
103.6
HR
3 BIP
Apr 12
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
3
92.5
3 BIP
Apr 11
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
2
80.3
2 BIP
Apr 10
@ PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
86.0
3 BIP
Apr 8
vs STL · Miles Mikolas
3
97.3
3 BIP
Apr 7
vs STL · Cade Cavalli
5
95.6
5 BIP
Apr 6
vs STL · Zack Littell
0
—
—
Apr 5
vs STL · Keider Montero
2
103.9
2 BIP
Apr 4
vs STL · Jack Flaherty
3
97.4
3 BIP
Apr 1
vs NYM · Freddy Peralta
2
96.0
2 BIP
Mar 31
vs NYM · Kodai Senga
0
—
—
Mar 30
vs NYM · Clay Holmes
5
102.6
5 BIP
Mar 26
vs TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
97.4
2 BIP
Ballpark
park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
0.67×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
3 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
2 gm
since his last HR, Sep 25
Season
28 HR
150 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 27 gaps · median 3 gm · MAD ± 1 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Common questions about Nolan Arenado
Will Nolan Arenado hit a home run today?
Nolan Arenado is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 28 times in 150 scored games (about 19% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.
How often does Nolan Arenado hit home runs?
Across 150 scored games this season, Nolan Arenado has 28 home runs — one every 5.4 games, or about 19% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.