Nick Loftin
RHB
KC
· 70 appearances tracked
6
HRs
8.6%
HR Rate
7.5%
Avg HR/FB
87.1
Avg EV
0.145
ISO
#61
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.145
Avg EV87.1
Barrel%4.5%
HR/FB vs LHP3.7%
Avg HR Dist394
Match%7.5%
Season HR%
8.6%
14D Pace
9.1%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
60.0%
5
Breaking
29.0%
1
Offspeed
11.0%
0
All
100%
4.1%
6
15.9%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Parker Messick · LHP · KC
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No prior plate appearances vs Parker Messick in our data. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather Neutral
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
4.5
vs
—
HR/FB
3.7
vs
18.0 ▼ risk
K%
15.9
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
70 tracked · 6 HR · 0 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 29
@ CLE · Foster Griffin
5
103.8
5 BIP
Aug 28
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
3
94.5
3 BIP
Aug 26
@ TOR · Spencer Miles
3
101.0
3 BIP
Aug 25
@ TOR · Max Scherzer
3
92.5
3 BIP
Aug 23
vs DET · Jacob Waguespack
4
104.8
HR
4 BIP
Aug 22
vs DET · Drew Anderson
2
98.5
2 BIP
Aug 21
vs DET · Troy Melton
2
82.6
2 BIP
Aug 20
vs ATH · Gage Jump
3
102.6
3 BIP
Aug 19
vs ATH · Jeffrey Springs
2
79.7
2 BIP
Aug 18
vs ATH · Brady Basso
1
91.1
1 BIP
Aug 16
@ LAA · Ryan Johnson
2
93.2
2 BIP
Aug 15
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
2
90.8
2 BIP
Aug 14
@ LAA · Grayson Rodriguez
2
106.3
2 BIP
Aug 9
vs CHC · Matthew Boyd
2
93.4
2 BIP
Aug 8
vs CHC · Clay Holmes
3
96.2
3 BIP
Aug 7
vs CHC · Kevin Gausman
3
84.6
3 BIP
Aug 5
vs MIN · Dean Kremer
3
102.0
3 BIP
Aug 4
vs MIN · Joe Ryan
2
81.1
2 BIP
Aug 2
@ COL · Kyle Freeland
2
98.9
2 BIP
Aug 1
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
4
81.4
4 BIP
Jul 30
@ MIN · Bailey Ober
4
96.6
4 BIP
Jul 29
@ MIN · Joe Ryan
4
95.6
4 BIP
Jul 28
@ MIN · Taj Bradley
2
99.5
2 BIP
Jul 26
@ DET · Framber Valdez
3
87.7
3 BIP
Jul 25
@ DET · Casey Mize
2
100.7
HR
2 BIP
Jul 24
@ DET · Tarik Skubal
3
105.6
3 BIP
Jul 23
@ DET · Troy Melton
3
105.1
3 BIP
Jul 21
vs SF · Tyler Mahle
4
99.8
4 BIP
Jul 19
vs SD · Germán Márquez
3
96.8
3 BIP
Jul 18
vs SD · Griffin Canning
2
61.2
2 BIP
Jul 17
vs SD · Michael King
4
97.8
4 BIP
Jul 11
@ BAL · Kyle Bradish
3
92.7
3 BIP
Jul 10
@ BAL · Brandon Young
3
92.6
3 BIP
Jul 9
@ NYM · Sean Manaea
3
101.6
3 BIP
Jul 8
@ NYM · Christian Scott
3
94.3
3 BIP
Jul 7
@ NYM · Cionel Pérez
4
99.6
HR
4 BIP
Jul 6
vs PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
5
95.3
5 BIP
Jul 4
vs PHI · Jesús Luzardo
3
93.6
3 BIP
Jul 2
vs TB · Ian Seymour
3
94.9
3 BIP
Jul 1
vs TB · Shane McClanahan
2
88.4
2 BIP
Jun 30
vs TB · Griffin Jax
3
97.2
3 BIP
Jun 27
@ CWS · Davis Martin
2
79.6
2 BIP
Jun 26
@ CWS · David Sandlin
2
92.2
2 BIP
Jun 25
@ TB · Casey Legumina
4
96.5
4 BIP
Jun 24
@ TB · Griffin Jax
4
95.6
4 BIP
Jun 23
@ TB · Shane McClanahan
5
104.6
HR
5 BIP
Jun 22
@ TB · Drew Rasmussen
2
90.7
2 BIP
Jun 21
vs STL · Dustin May
3
104.0
HR
3 BIP
Jun 19
vs STL · Michael McGreevy
2
89.9
2 BIP
Jun 18
vs STL · Matthew Liberatore
4
106.5
4 BIP
Jun 17
@ WSH · Zack Littell
3
99.4
3 BIP
Jun 16
@ WSH · Foster Griffin
3
95.2
3 BIP
Jun 15
@ WSH · Andrew Alvarez
2
103.0
2 BIP
Jun 11
vs TEX · Kumar Rocker
3
98.1
3 BIP
Jun 10
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
99.3
3 BIP
Jun 7
@ MIN · Connor Prielipp
2
94.1
2 BIP
Jun 5
@ MIN · Zebby Matthews
2
91.5
2 BIP
Jun 4
@ MIN · Andrew Morris
4
98.9
4 BIP
Jun 3
@ CIN · Chase Burns
3
102.0
HR
3 BIP
Jun 2
@ CIN · Andrew Abbott
3
95.6
3 BIP
Jun 1
@ CIN · Lyon Richardson
4
93.7
4 BIP
May 31
@ TEX · Jack Leiter
2
97.9
2 BIP
May 29
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
4
102.8
4 BIP
May 26
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
2
81.0
2 BIP
May 19
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
1
95.8
1 BIP
May 14
@ CWS · Anthony Kay
3
100.3
3 BIP
Apr 30
@ ATH · Jeffrey Springs
2
97.1
2 BIP
Apr 26
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
4
95.0
4 BIP
Apr 24
vs LAA · Yusei Kikuchi
3
88.7
3 BIP
Mar 29
@ ATL · Grant Holmes
4
94.5
4 BIP
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.966
Wind
7 mph from WNW
Temp
75°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:40p
7 ↙
75°
-2
2:40p
6 ↙
75°
-5
3:40p
3 ↙
74°
-4
4:40p
1 ↙
73°
-1
5:40p
2 ↙
73°
-1
-3
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing in from oppo (from NW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
0.36×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
11 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
4 gm
since his last HR, Aug 23
Season
6 HR
70 games · 1 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 5 gaps · median 11 gm · MAD ± 1 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 33 → 33
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
season hr rate
HR/FB Matchup
recent hr density 14d
Pitcher FIP
Exit Velocity
Common questions about Nick Loftin
Will Nick Loftin hit a home run today?
Nick Loftin is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #180 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Parker Messick at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Nick Loftin hit home runs?
Across 70 scored games this season, Nick Loftin has 6 home runs — one every 11.7 games, or about 9% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.