Nick Fortes
TB
· 81 appearances tracked
5
HRs
6.2%
HR Rate
7.6%
Avg HR/FB
86.6
Avg EV
0.097
ISO
#77
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.117
Avg EV85.4
Barrel%4.1%
HR/FB vs RHP19.1%
Avg HR Dist386
Match%14.6%
Season HR%
6.1%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
60.9%
4
Breaking
24.8%
2
Offspeed
14.3%
0
All
100%
2.3%
6
14.0%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Shawn Armstrong · RHP · TB
SMALL SAMPLE · 3 PA · since 2022
1.000
AVG
1.000
SLG
0
HR
1-for-1 and 1 walk across 3 plate appearances since 2022. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Cold
Platoon —
Weather -1
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
4.1
vs
—
HR/FB
19.1
vs
20.0 ▼ risk
K%
14.0
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
recent home runs
No home runs captured on a scored slate yet.
All Appearances
81 tracked · 5 HR · 0 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 27
@ PHI · Zack Wheeler
2
57.9
2 BIP
Sep 25
@ PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
2
102.0
HR
2 BIP
Sep 22
@ NYY · Max Fried
4
112.7
4 BIP
Sep 20
vs BOS · Patrick Sandoval
1
87.6
1 BIP
Sep 18
vs BOS · Ranger Suarez
1
95.0
1 BIP
Sep 16
vs ATH · Brady Basso
2
101.2
2 BIP
Sep 13
vs HOU · Hayden Wesneski
3
99.7
HR
3 BIP
Sep 10
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
2
102.1
2 BIP
Sep 6
@ TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
97.3
3 BIP
Sep 4
@ TEX · Trevor Williams
0
—
—
Sep 3
@ TEX · Cal Quantrill
1
100.1
1 BIP
Sep 1
vs NYM · Sean Manaea
3
99.7
3 BIP
Aug 30
vs SD · Robbie Ray
2
91.2
2 BIP
Aug 24
@ DET · Framber Valdez
4
100.8
4 BIP
Aug 20
vs TOR · Shane Bieber
2
94.3
2 BIP
Aug 16
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
3
84.2
3 BIP
Aug 11
@ ATH · Mason Barnett
0
—
—
Aug 10
@ ATH · Jacob Lopez
2
90.7
2 BIP
Aug 8
@ SEA · George Kirby
2
66.8
2 BIP
Aug 7
@ SEA · Logan Gilbert
0
—
—
Aug 5
@ COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
2
81.9
2 BIP
Aug 4
@ COL · Gabriel Hughes
0
—
—
Aug 3
@ COL · Michael Lorenzen
0
—
—
Aug 2
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
3
104.0
3 BIP
Aug 1
vs CWS · Jordan Hicks
3
102.7
3 BIP
Jul 29
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
3
94.8
3 BIP
Jul 26
vs CLE · Parker Messick
2
90.2
2 BIP
Jul 24
vs CLE · Joey Cantillo
4
103.9
4 BIP
Jul 21
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
5
104.7
HR
5 BIP
Jul 20
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
4
102.9
HR
4 BIP
Jul 18
@ BOS · BOS Bullpen Proxy
2
72.1
2 BIP
Jul 17
@ BOS · Jake Bennett
2
82.8
2 BIP
Jul 11
vs SEA · Logan Gilbert
3
102.2
3 BIP
Jul 9
vs NYY · Paul Blackburn
3
96.4
3 BIP
Jul 8
vs NYY · Gerrit Cole
2
102.5
2 BIP
Jul 6
vs NYY · Cam Schlittler
3
102.0
3 BIP
Jul 3
@ HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
3
102.8
HR
3 BIP
Jun 30
@ KC · Noah Cameron
4
104.3
4 BIP
Jun 28
vs AZ · Merrill Kelly
2
94.0
2 BIP
Jun 24
vs KC · Noah Cameron
3
93.7
3 BIP
Jun 22
vs KC · Michael Wacha
2
85.2
2 BIP
Jun 21
vs WSH · Andrew Alvarez
4
83.1
4 BIP
Jun 16
@ LAD · Justin Wrobleski
3
106.0
3 BIP
Jun 15
@ LAD · Eric Lauer
3
91.0
3 BIP
Jun 13
@ LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
Jun 12
@ LAA · Sam Aldegheri
3
96.8
3 BIP
Jun 10
vs BOS · Jake Bennett
4
107.2
4 BIP
Jun 9
vs BOS · Payton Tolle
3
91.8
3 BIP
Jun 8
vs BOS · Connelly Early
2
70.1
2 BIP
Jun 6
@ MIA · Lake Bachar
1
103.3
1 BIP
Jun 5
@ MIA · MIA Bullpen Proxy
5
95.5
5 BIP
Jun 3
vs DET · Troy Melton
3
99.6
3 BIP
May 30
vs LAA · Reid Detmers
4
99.7
4 BIP
May 29
vs LAA · Walbert Ureña
4
101.3
4 BIP
May 24
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
3
104.7
3 BIP
May 22
@ NYY · Gerrit Cole
2
78.9
2 BIP
May 18
vs BAL · Trevor Rogers
4
107.2
4 BIP
May 17
vs MIA · Eury Pérez
4
88.6
4 BIP
May 13
@ TOR · Dylan Cease
0
—
—
May 12
@ TOR · Patrick Corbin
2
105.8
2 BIP
May 11
@ TOR · Kevin Gausman
0
—
—
May 10
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
3
100.2
3 BIP
May 9
@ BOS · Payton Tolle
0
—
—
May 8
@ BOS · Connelly Early
2
103.1
2 BIP
May 7
@ BOS · Jake Bennett
2
102.6
2 BIP
May 6
vs TOR · Patrick Corbin
3
101.6
3 BIP
May 5
vs TOR · Kevin Gausman
0
—
—
May 3
vs SF · Tyler Mahle
3
103.1
3 BIP
May 2
vs SF · Landen Roupp
2
94.1
2 BIP
May 1
vs SF · Robbie Ray
2
95.4
2 BIP
Apr 28
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
4
92.7
4 BIP
Apr 27
@ CLE · Parker Messick
2
99.2
2 BIP
Apr 25
vs MIN · Bailey Ober
3
89.8
3 BIP
Apr 24
vs MIN · Taj Bradley
3
108.9
3 BIP
Apr 22
vs CIN · Brandon Williamson
3
99.7
3 BIP
Apr 21
vs CIN · Chase Burns
0
—
—
Apr 20
vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
2
90.0
2 BIP
Apr 18
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
2
105.2
2 BIP
Apr 17
@ PIT · Bubba Chandler
2
103.5
2 BIP
Apr 16
@ CWS · Jordan Leasure
3
102.3
3 BIP
Apr 10
vs NYY · Luis Gil
3
94.6
3 BIP
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.950
Wind
9 mph from W
Temp
50°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
8:00p
9 ↖
50°
-3
9:00p
9 ↖
50°
-1
10:00p
10 ↖
49°
+2
11:00p
10 ↖
49°
+4
12:00a
10 ↖
48°
+4
+1
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing out to oppo (from WSW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
0.14×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
7 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
1 gm
since his last HR, Sep 25
Season
5 HR
81 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 4 gaps · median 7 gm · MAD ± 4.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 32 → 32
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
Pitcher FIP
HR/FB Matchup
season hr rate
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Nick Fortes
Will Nick Fortes hit a home run today?
Nick Fortes is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #12 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Shawn Armstrong at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Nick Fortes hit home runs?
Across 81 scored games this season, Nick Fortes has 5 home runs — one every 16.2 games, or about 6% of his scored games.
Has Nick Fortes homered off Shawn Armstrong before?
Not yet — Nick Fortes has faced Shawn Armstrong 3 times without a home run.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.