Nelson Velázquez
STL
· 19 appearances tracked
3
HRs
15.8%
HR Rate
28.5%
Avg HR/FB
93.0
Avg EV
0.216
ISO
#28
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
No HR profile for this matchup yet.
The percentile ladder populates once this batter is on a scored slate.
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-10-17
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
63.7%
6
Breaking
23.9%
0
Offspeed
12.4%
0
All
100%
13.8%
6
33.6%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Crushes the fastball — whiffs climb on breaking & offspeed.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
head-to-head
NO SAMPLE · 0 PA
—
AVG
—
SLG
—
HR
No probable pitcher set for this matchup. Lean on the season profile and the modifiers below.
Modifiers
0 of 4 active
Ballpark —
Pitcher form —
Platoon —
Weather —
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
K%
33.6
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked.
HR Days
3 this season · avg 415 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Aug 31
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
—
109.1
415
HR by month
Aug
All Appearances
19 tracked · 3 HR · 5 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Sep 6
vs AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
1
86.1
1 BIP
Aug 31
vs CWS · Anthony Kay
1
109.1
HR
1 BIP
Aug 28
vs HOU · Christian Scott
1
96.7
1 BIP
Aug 4
@ NYY · Ryan Weathers
2
102.9
2 BIP
Jul 27
vs CHC · David Peterson
2
102.6
2 BIP
Jul 26
vs CIN · Andrew Abbott
2
101.9
2 BIP
Jul 22
@ LAA · Reid Detmers
1
89.7
1 BIP
Jul 19
@ AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
0
—
—
Jul 10
vs ATL · Chris Sale
0
—
—
Jul 8
vs MIL · Kyle Harrison
1
103.4
1 BIP
Jul 6
vs MIL · Shane Drohan
3
101.6
3 BIP
Jul 3
@ CHC · David Peterson
4
101.8
4 BIP
Jun 30
@ ATL · Martín Pérez
2
107.8
HR
2 BIP
Jun 24
vs AZ · AZ Bullpen Proxy
2
95.2
2 BIP
Jun 23
vs AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
2
103.0
2 BIP
Jun 18
@ KC · Noah Cameron
3
99.3
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs TEX · MacKenzie Gore
2
100.4
2 BIP
May 31
vs CHC · Jordan Wicks
4
100.4
4 BIP
May 29
vs CHC · Shota Imanaga
3
105.0
HR
3 BIP
Ballpark
park factor · wind · spray
Ballpark conditions unavailable — this batter isn’t on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game —
Dueness now
0.09×
not yet due — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
11 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
1 gm
since his last HR, Aug 31
Season
3 HR
19 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 2 gaps · median 11 gm · MAD ± 2.5 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Common questions about Nelson Velázquez
Will Nelson Velázquez hit a home run today?
Nelson Velázquez is not on today's TheHomeRuns slate. This season he has homered 3 times in 19 scored games (about 16% of games). Check back when he next appears on the daily board.
How often does Nelson Velázquez hit home runs?
Across 19 scored games this season, Nelson Velázquez has 3 home runs — one every 6.3 games, or about 16% of his scored games.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.