Nathaniel Lowe
LHB
CIN
· 78 appearances tracked
11
HRs
14.1%
HR Rate
34.0%
Avg HR/FB
89.7
Avg EV
0.245
ISO
#1
Best Rank
HR Profile
Season-to-date · live-tape thresholds
ISO0.197
Avg EV89.1
Barrel%8.1%
HR/FB vs RHP23.7%
Avg HR Dist398
Match%12.1%
Season HR%
15.0%
14D Pace
0.0%
Pitch Analysis
season · as of 2026-08-30
Pitch
Seen
Barrel%
HR
K%
Fastball
66.3%
7
Breaking
19.0%
4
Offspeed
14.7%
3
All
100%
8.5%
14
23.8%
Barrel vs. Whiff
BRL
K
Fastball
Breaking
Offspeed
Barrel & whiff rates by pitch family.
K% shown per family; true swing-whiff pending.
Batter vs. Pitcher
vs Seth Lugo · RHP · CIN
SMALL SAMPLE · 4 PA · since 2022
.250
AVG
1.000
SLG
1
HR
1-for-4 with 1 homer across 4 plate appearances since 2022. Thin sample — lean on the season profile.
Modifiers
1 of 4 active
Progressive Neutral
Pitcher form Steady
Platoon Edge
Weather Neutral
Edge by rate
· batter ●
vs pitcher-allowed ●
Barrel%
8.1
vs
—
HR/FB
23.7
vs
10.5 ▲ edge
K%
23.8
vs
—
Batter rates are season-to-date; pitcher-allowed shown where tracked. HR/FB compared head-to-head.
HR Days
11 this season · avg 397 ft
Date
Opp · Pitcher
Pitch
EV
Dist
Apr 24
Framber Valdez · Great American Ball Park
—
104.6
396.0
Apr 26
Keider Montero · Great American Ball Park
—
98.6
372.0
Apr 30
Michael Lorenzen · Great American Ball Park
—
101.7
399.0
May 5
Jameson Taillon · Wrigley Field
—
108.1
404.0
May 23
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
—
106.8
398.0
May 29
vs ATL · Grant Holmes
—
100.6
390
Jul 19
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
—
106.9
420
HR by month
Apr
May
Jul
All Appearances
78 tracked · 11 HR · 47 top‑50
Date
Opp · Pitcher
BIP
Max EV
Result
HR
Aug 28
vs KC · Michael Wacha
1
65.8
1 BIP
Aug 26
vs CLE · Grayson Rodriguez
2
110.0
2 BIP
Aug 23
vs CLE · Tomoyuki Sugano
5
98.8
5 BIP
Aug 22
vs CLE · Gabriel Hughes
4
107.3
4 BIP
Aug 20
vs SF · Landen Roupp
3
92.6
3 BIP
Aug 19
vs SF · SF Bullpen Proxy
2
102.8
2 BIP
Aug 16
vs SD · Casey Mize
3
97.5
3 BIP
Aug 15
vs SD · Wandy Peralta
3
92.0
3 BIP
Aug 14
vs SD · Michael King
4
107.4
HR
4 BIP
Aug 13
vs CLE · Keider Montero
4
100.8
4 BIP
Aug 11
vs CLE · Drew Anderson
3
98.5
3 BIP
Aug 9
vs CLE · Davis Martin
2
87.3
2 BIP
Aug 6
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
2
111.7
HR
2 BIP
Aug 5
vs NYM · Christian Scott
5
103.0
5 BIP
Aug 2
vs PIT · Mitch Keller
3
105.2
3 BIP
Aug 1
vs PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
4
109.1
4 BIP
Jul 31
vs PIT · Paul Skenes
3
101.7
3 BIP
Jul 30
vs PIT · Yohan Ramírez
4
110.6
4 BIP
Jul 28
vs CLE · Gavin Williams
5
103.7
5 BIP
Jul 27
vs CLE · Slade Cecconi
0
—
—
Jul 26
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
5
109.0
5 BIP
Jul 24
@ STL · Dustin May
4
99.3
4 BIP
Jul 22
@ SEA · Emerson Hancock
3
100.9
3 BIP
Jul 21
@ SEA · Luis Castillo
4
100.3
HR
4 BIP
Jul 20
@ SEA · George Kirby
0
—
—
Jul 19
@ COL · Ryan Feltner
3
106.9
HR
3 BIP
Jul 17
@ COL · Gabriel Hughes
0
—
—
Jul 11
vs CHC · Javier Assad
4
105.6
HR
4 BIP
Jul 7
vs PHI · Zack Wheeler
1
84.6
1 BIP
Jul 4
vs BAL · Brandon Young
2
84.5
2 BIP
Jul 2
@ MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
2
106.1
2 BIP
Jun 30
@ MIL · Brandon Sproat
2
94.2
2 BIP
Jun 27
@ PIT · Jared Jones
0
—
—
Jun 26
@ PIT · Paul Skenes
2
100.5
2 BIP
Jun 23
vs MIL · Brandon Sproat
1
112.6
1 BIP
Jun 22
vs MIL · Brandon Woodruff
1
82.2
1 BIP
Jun 21
@ NYY · Elmer Rodríguez
3
77.6
3 BIP
Jun 20
@ NYY · Will Warren
2
102.3
2 BIP
Jun 19
@ NYY · Cam Schlittler
2
88.8
2 BIP
Jun 17
vs NYM · Nolan McLean
2
87.4
2 BIP
Jun 16
vs NYM · Kodai Senga
1
86.6
1 BIP
Jun 14
vs AZ · Zac Gallen
2
102.5
2 BIP
Jun 13
vs AZ · Michael Soroka
2
90.0
2 BIP
Jun 10
@ SD · Michael King
3
88.1
3 BIP
Jun 9
@ SD · Lucas Giolito
1
86.4
1 BIP
Jun 8
@ SD · Walker Buehler
1
102.9
1 BIP
Jun 7
@ STL · Michael McGreevy
3
111.6
3 BIP
Jun 5
@ STL · Kyle Leahy
3
103.9
3 BIP
Jun 3
vs KC · Stephen Kolek
2
86.7
2 BIP
Jun 1
vs KC · Luinder Avila
3
73.3
3 BIP
May 31
vs ATL · Spencer Strider
3
86.4
3 BIP
May 29
vs ATL · Grant Holmes
4
101.0
HR
4 BIP
May 27
@ NYM · Huascar Brazobán
2
89.8
2 BIP
May 25
@ NYM · Nolan McLean
2
96.2
2 BIP
May 24
vs STL · Brycen Mautz
0
—
—
May 23
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
6
106.8
HR
6 BIP
May 22
vs STL · Kyle Leahy
0
—
—
May 20
@ PHI · Aaron Nola
3
107.8
3 BIP
May 18
@ PHI · Andrew Painter
3
107.8
3 BIP
May 17
@ CLE · Gavin Williams
4
111.6
4 BIP
May 15
@ CLE · Tanner Bibee
3
112.2
3 BIP
May 13
vs WSH · Jake Irvin
1
—
1 BIP
May 12
vs WSH · Miles Mikolas
0
—
—
May 10
vs HOU · Kai-Wei Teng
0
—
—
May 9
vs HOU · Spencer Arrighetti
2
91.5
2 BIP
May 8
vs HOU · Mike Burrows
2
71.9
2 BIP
May 7
@ CHC · Shota Imanaga
0
—
—
May 6
@ CHC · Colin Rea
3
91.4
3 BIP
May 5
@ CHC · Jameson Taillon
3
108.1
HR
3 BIP
May 4
@ CHC · Edward Cabrera
2
107.4
2 BIP
May 3
@ PIT · Braxton Ashcraft
1
48.2
1 BIP
May 2
@ PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
2
99.3
2 BIP
May 1
@ PIT · Mitch Keller
1
100.4
1 BIP
Apr 30
vs COL · Michael Lorenzen
3
108.0
HR
3 BIP
Apr 29
vs COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
2
97.0
2 BIP
Apr 26
vs DET · Keider Montero
4
98.6
HR
4 BIP
Apr 24
vs DET · Framber Valdez
5
112.7
HR
5 BIP
Apr 12
vs LAA · José Soriano
0
—
—
Ballpark
Progressive Field · open-air
Park Factor
0.966
Wind
7 mph from WNW
Temp
75°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:40p
7 ↘
75°
-2
2:40p
6 ↘
75°
-5
3:40p
3 ↘
74°
-4
4:40p
1 ↘
73°
-1
5:40p
2 ↘
73°
-1
-3
Neutral alignment
true spray · live hourly FIT · open-air wind signal
HIT LOCATIONS'25–'26
Game-window avg wind · blowing in from pull (from NW)
TONIGHT
board — not posted yet
next game Sun 8/30
Dueness now
2.00×
overdue — gap ÷ cadence
Cadence
4 gm
median between HRs, game-days
Current gap
8 gm
since his last HR, Aug 14
Season
11 HR
78 games · 0 HR last 14d
Rhythm tightness
his gaps between HRs, in game-days — tight columns = metronome, spread = streaky
one dot per gap · 10 gaps · median 4 gm · MAD ± 2.0 gm · now marker = current gap
SunMonTueWedThuFriSat
Rhythm observation, not a prediction — the “g+n” counters and crossing marks only read his own history. See tonight’s board for the model’s actual ranking. Model picks · For entertainment.
Score Breakdown
Base 46 → 46
ISO (Power)
Barrel Matchup
Park Factor
season hr rate
Pitcher FIP
HR/FB Matchup
Exit Velocity
recent hr density 14d
Common questions about Nathaniel Lowe
Will Nathaniel Lowe hit a home run today?
Nathaniel Lowe is on today's TheHomeRuns slate, ranked #81 among tonight's scored batters for home run likelihood, facing Seth Lugo at Progressive Field. That's a model ranking, not a prediction of a certain outcome — even the model's top-ranked bats homer in roughly one of five games. Not gambling advice.
How often does Nathaniel Lowe hit home runs?
Across 78 scored games this season, Nathaniel Lowe has 11 home runs — one every 7.1 games, or about 14% of his scored games.
Has Nathaniel Lowe homered off Seth Lugo before?
Yes — Nathaniel Lowe has taken Seth Lugo deep 1 time in 4 career plate appearances against him.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.